A 2024 Oil Prediction That Will Surprise You

Welcome to the slowest time of the year. It’s that week between Christmas and New Year’s Day that we all use to shun work, get closer to family, and reflect on the year ahead. 

For most, time passes too quickly. 

For the markets, this week is like purgatory. Neither bright nor hellish as everyone absconds from work to enjoy the time between the holidays; a ghost week where the only fireworks that go off are usually after the ball drops in Times Square. 

I can only hope you’re taking the week to relax and are reading this in a recliner with your legs kicked up. 

So with this in mind, I offer you a bit of reflection on an oil prediction for 2024 — something that is being overlooked in today’s media headlines.  

Let’s get right to it, shall we?

A Wake-up Call for U.S. Oil Production 

If one thing was glaringly clear to us in 2023, it’s that our domestic oil production rebounded more than most people expected, including me. 

According to the EIA, U.S. oil output has grown more than 1.2 million barrels per day over the last twelve months. 

And I don’t think it’s a stretch to say people are euphoric about U.S. crude output.

Make no mistake, it’s a good thing that we’re pumping more oil than ever before. Not only does higher output help keep a lid on prices, but that new supply has fueled our export trade this year. 

Take a look for yourself how U.S. oil exports hit a record high during the first half of 2023:

During the first half of the year, crude exports out of the United States averaged 3.99 million barrels per day, which is up 19% year-over-year. 

Expect more of that in 2024, too!

Even with this good news, however, I believe there’s going to be a wakeup call for people this year when it comes to U.S. production. 

Right now, it feels as if there’s a disconnect between the excessive optimism and the reality on the ground. That wild wave of optimism over U.S. production comes straight from the weekly EIA reports that shows our dometic output at record levels of 13.3 million barrels per day. 

While there’s no question that our production is high, it’s not what most people think. 

In the past, we’ve talked about several factors for investors to stay grounded on the EIA’s oil projections, such as the lower rig counts that continue to be reported, or the disappearing DUCs that still go unnoticed.

In 2024, I believe it’ll be the EIA numbers themselves that will be thrown into question; more important is that the market will finally realize the hype is a little too much. 

This isn’t new, mind you. This very topic of statistical accuracy came up in the beginning of 2023, when the EIA itself admitted it may be getting things wrong and are working on a new formula for its calculations. 

But hey! If you can’t get the numbers you want, just fudge with the methodology a bit, right?

Just don’t be too surprised when production declines over the short term. 

The bigger issue, however, is that the U.S. shale patch has run out of massive annual growth. We won’t see production jump by 1.2 million barrels per day next year, which is a problem when you consider how optimistic most people are when it comes to the U.S. being a global swing producer. 

Remember, most non-OPEC global supply growth is expected to come from three countries: Brazil, Guyana, and the United States. 

One of those countries is about to experience far less growth than the hype is calling for, the other is now officially in a territorial crisis with its neighbor that may ultimately threaten its rich offshore oil reserves, and the third is set to join OPEC within a matter of days.

Get ready for the wake-up call.

Until next time,

Keith Kohl

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A true insider in the technology and energy markets, Keith’s research has helped everyday investors capitalize from the rapid adoption of new technology trends and energy transitions. Keith connects with hundreds of thousands of readers as the Managing Editor of Energy & Capital, as well as the investment director of Angel Publishing’s Energy Investor and Technology and Opportunity.

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