Trump Is Running Beijing’s Playbook

In the mid-2000s, mining crews carved a road into the Congolese bush to build Tenke Fungurume. 

At the time, it was one of the biggest copper projects on Earth because a billion people on the other side of the planet were moving into cities that simply didn’t exist yet.

That’s what a supercycle looks like from the ground, dear reader, and the smart money was so desperate for supply that it’ll build anywhere.

My veteran readers know this story all too well…

China joined the WTO in 2001 and unleashed the largest construction boom in human history. Hundreds of cities rising at once, every one of them needing wiring, grids, pipes, and steel. 

In fact, China poured more cement between 2000 and 2010 than America used in the entire twentieth century.

Of course, copper prices went from roughly $1,000 a ton to $10,000.

Then, around 2011, something boring happened. You see, China actually started running out of cities to build. 

Supply finally caught up, which led to a price crash. And by 2014 the supercycle was dead. 

Everyone who bought the peak in 2007 spent years underwater.

Now, this time the supercycle is waving an American flag.

Let’s start with why…

Trump Is Running Beijing’s Playbook

Today, China refines roughly 91% of the world’s rare earths. 

As if that weren’t enough, it also controls 90% of separation capacity and 93% of magnet manufacturing. 

If we zoom out past rare earths, we’ll find that China is actually the top refiner for 19 of the 20 most strategic minerals on the planet.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is fully import-dependent for a dozen critical minerals and imports more than half its supply of another twenty-nine!

This isn’t a sudden revelation, mind you. The Department of the Interior has been publishing reports about this dependency for decades. 

Well, the era of writing reports is over, and President Trump is looking to finally take the next leap forward. 

About three weeks ago, Beijing added two American companies to its export blacklist — and these guys weren’t chipmakers or defense primes. 

They were MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, the two firms anchoring America’s mine-to-magnet strategy. I don’t think China would target something that isn’t a threat, which is why accelerating America’s domestic production of critical minerals is scaring President Xi. 

What provoked them? Well, like I just mentioned, Washington stopped writing reports and started writing checks.

Just look at what the Pentagon did with MP Materials, because nothing like it has happened since World War II. 

Our government took a $400 million equity stake in the company, and guaranteed a price floor of $110 per kilogram on MP’s key rare earth product for the next decade. 

Then, the Trump administration inked a deal to buy 100% of the output from MP’s new magnet plant… before the plant was even built!

Suddenly, the U.S. government became the investor, customer, and price-setter — all at once. 

But this isn’t a subsidy, if that’s what you’re thinking. It’s just simply the Chinese industrial playbook, translated into English.

And you can bet it doesn’t stop there. 

In fact, President Trump’s mineral orders unlocked Defense Production Act money for mines and processors, put mining first in line on federal lands, and fast-tracked permits that used to rot for a decade. 

Want proof the machine works? Take a look at last week’s move when South32’s $3.3 billion Hermosa project in Arizona received its final federal decision. This was completed in record time under the new fast-track system.

There’s your ticking clock…

Remember, Trump’s January proclamation gave the Commerce Dept. 180 days to negotiate mineral price floors with our allies. That window closes this month, with tariffs as the explicit fallback. 

And the G7, for its part, just agreed to cap rare earth imports from any single country below 60% by 2030.

A coordinated Western demand guarantee, backed by the Pentagon’s checkbook. 

Our miners have waited forty years for this kind of setup.

The Next Supercycle Will Be Made in America

If you’re trying to think a step ahead, all you have to do is ask the right questions:

Didn’t the China supercycle end in tears? Why won’t this one?

Well, it’s because China’s boom carried an expiration date from the very first day. 

They built the cities, wired the grids, and then boom — they’re done. In other words, demand had a finish line that supply eventually crossed, and the cycle died on schedule.

But that’s not what’s driving this American cycle.

Instead, it’s AI compute, grid electrification, and rearmament.

Data centers don’t hit a supply limit, because every generation of chips demands the next, hungrier one. As we’ve learned all too well in the Middle East, munitions get continuously consumed and replaced. And the grid buildout that is necessary will be measured in decades, not years. 

My point is, these drivers are foundational, and have a long runway ahead of them. So, there isn’t a moment when America will suddenly have enough processing capacity and everyone goes home.

Meanwhile, the supply side looks exactly like 2001 — starved. 

Remember, western processing capacity is nearly nonexistent, and the U.S. has the second-longest mine development timeline in the world (not to mention an entire generation of junior miners that spent the last decade unable to raise a dime).

Of course, the smart money this time around won’t be made by digging holes in the ground. If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll see that Trump’s own proclamation admits it — a mineral mined in America means nothing if China still does the refining. 

The bottleneck is processing, separation, and magnets — that’s where the MP deal landed, and it’s where the next ones will too.

Look at it as MP being the template, not the exception. 

So somewhere on a desk in Washington is a shortlist of the next national champions, and the market has started front-running it. A few of you probably have seen this already from the fact that USA Rare Earth has more than doubled this year. 

We’ve been building that same shortlist — the American players in a position to take advantage of Trump’s rush to secure our domestic supply of critical minerals. 

Tenke Fungurume got built because one superpower went shopping…

And another just entered the store.