Meet “The Next Gold”

When analysts over at Goldman Sachs released the updated supply-demand models for uranium, there was really only one conclusion to be made. 

Uranium could become “the next gold.”

This isn’t because the prices were similar, or because either were scarce in the traditional sense. 

It turns out that one is essential AND irreplaceable for the decades-long infrastructure buildout that nobody can slow down or stop.

In fact, Goldman’s analysis showed a cumulative net deficit of nearly two billion pounds of uranium through 2045. 

For a little more perspective on that, it’s actually 211 million pounds wider than their previous estimate. 

And you know just as well as I do what made the upward revision so necessary. 

AI data center demand is accelerating faster than anyone anticipated, which is expected to push spot uranium prices reaching $91 per pound by year-end. 

So, when Goldman Sachs compares an industrial commodity like uranium to gold, they’re not talking about sentiment. 

What those analysts are doing is acknowledging a structural repricing, with uranium transitioning from a tradeable commodity to essential infrastructure fuel.

And here’s the part that goes largely ignored today — the supply side of this equation is completely unprepared for it. 

We’re Building the Reactors, But Forgot to Order the Fuel.

Just about 80 years ago, a Belgian mining engineer named Edgar Sengier understood something most people still don’t: whoever controls the fuel controls the outcome.

It was 1940, and German forces were advancing into Belgium. 

At the time, Sengier ran Union Minière, which controlled the Shinkolobwe mine in the Congo — the richest uranium deposit ever found — and shipped approximately 1,200 tonnes of uranium ore to a warehouse on Staten Island. 

Not only did he not have a buyer in mind, but he had no clear plan going forward. All he had was an instinct that his uranium was too valuable to leave where the Nazis could reach it.

And there it sat in Staten Island for two years completely untouched. 

Then suddenly in September 1942, an army colonel named Kenneth Nichols walked into Sengier’s office looking for uranium for the Manhattan Project.

Yes, THAT Manhattan Project. 

That’s when Sengier told him about the warehouse in Staten Island, and gave the project a two-year head start.

Today, we’re making the opposite mistake.

You see, right now there are more than a dozen (15, to be precise) new reactors coming online globally this year, adding 12 gigawatts of capacity. 

We also can’t forget the Palisades restarted in Michigan — the first decommissioned U.S. reactor ever brought back to life. 

Meanwhile, China approved 10 new units with $27 billion in investment. 

Big Tech has seen the light at the end of the tunnel, too…

Meta locked in 1.2 gigawatts of SMR capacity. AWS signed a 17-year power purchase agreement for 1.92 gigawatts.

Every single one of those reactors needs uranium — for the next 40 to 60 years!

In total, global uranium production last year was around 173 million pounds, while global reactor demand was 204 million pounds.

That’s a 31-million-pound annual deficit, folks. 

And that deficit is a very real part of the market right now that’s being covered by dwindling secondary supply — stockpiles, recycled material, Cold War warheads. 

However, that buffer is finite. 

And when it runs dry, the market will inevitably reprice.

Well, dear reader, the supply side just collapsed.

Today, Kazakhstan produces 43% of the world’s uranium. And Kazatomprom, its state-owned producer, just cut 2026 output by 10%. 

That’s roughly 8 million pounds removed from an already undersupplied market.

Naturally, the company cited operational constraints such as sulfuric acid shortages for their in-situ recovery process. 

But here’s the real message — the company is choosing to produce less despite visible supply deficits and rising prices. 

When the world’s largest producer voluntarily cuts output in a tight market, it’s a signal that supply is becoming unavailable at any price.

And this isn’t to mention what’s going on in Russia…

Before 2024, Russia supplied a little over one-third of the United States’ enriched uranium. 

So it made sense when Congress passed the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, which took effect in August of 2024. 

Russia retaliated by throttling its own exports. Meanwhile, the U.S. reactor fleet — nearly 20% of American electricity — lost access to roughly a third of its enriched fuel supply almost overnight.

But the enrichment issue is even more acute than the mining shortage. Remember, there are only four commercial uranium enrichment facilities in the entire Western world, and the U.S. outsourced virtually all of its enrichment capacity to Russia and Europe for 30 years.

We built the reactors, but forgot to order the fuel.

Now with 15 new reactors coming online soon, each one will lock-in 400 tonnes of uranium demand annually for 40 years. 

And every single one is commissioned against a supply base already running a 31-million-pound annual deficit.

Right now, the uranium market is currently split in two.

Spot uranium prices have ranged around $77-85 per pound. 

However, long-term contract prices — what utilities actually pay when locking in decades of fuel supply — hit $90 per pound. 

That’s a 14-year high, in casey you’re counting. 

That’s the real market signal. 

You see, utilities are accepting elevated contract levels because they understand that availability (not price) is the constraint.

Long-term contracting volumes are accelerating. Through October 2025, roughly 82 million pounds were locked in at term prices. By November 2025 alone, 27 million additional pounds were added from 14 new deals.

But the thing is, utilities have only contracted 30% of their post-2027 fuel needs. 

That means about 70% remains uncontracted.

So when those buyers flood the market simultaneously — and they will have to — the spot-term disconnect collapses. 

Then, spot prices converge upward toward term prices and ultimately move higher.

Back in January, the uranium spot price pulled back from $101 per pound to around $85 today. 

That may seem contained, but the long-term contract trajectory tells us the real story. Prices climbed from $80 per pound to $90 within six months, and now Goldman is expecting to see spot uranium hit as high as $120 per pound by 2027. 

In fact, some are even expecting to see prices spike to $135/lb as utilities rush to contract unmet demand.

Look, Edgar Sengier understood what the uranium was worth before anyone told him what it was for. 

That’s why he moved it to safety on pure instinct. 

Today, the smart money that sees the fuel supply story before the herd prices it in will be in the same position Sengier was — holding the critical asset everyone else forgot to secure.

Fortunately, we’re still in the early innings, especially as the market treats uranium like a commodity that moves with sentiment and speculation. 

Soon it’ll price uranium like infrastructure — a fuel that has become non-negotiable to tomorrow’s growth.