'Tis the season for wild oil price predictions.
Some of you might remember last year’s outlandish forecasts well. While oil climbed as high as $130 per barrel briefly after Russian tanks started rolling into Ukraine, it didn’t take long for hyperbole to kick in.
Goldman was calling for $140/bbl oil.
J.P. Morgan went even further, saying oil would spike to $380 per barrel of Russian crude if Vladimir Putin retaliated over U.S. and European intervention in Ukraine and decided to suddenly cut output by 5 million barrels per day.
As I told you then, both would turn out to be embarrassingly wrong.
This year, Goldman decided to temper its crude tea leaves and only expects oil to hit $107 per barrel next year.
Granted, there were a few caveats to Goldman’s fortune-telling. Its analysts said they need to see the current round of production cuts extend into 2024.
But will we see triple digits before 2024? Our analysts have traveled the world over, dedicated to finding the best and most profitable investments in the global energy markets. All you have to do to join our Energy and Capital investment community is sign up for the daily newsletter below.
Perhaps.
The Saudis and Russians are clearly still bitter with the West. That much was obvious earlier this week after the two countries extended their voluntary output cuts through the end of the year.
That’s 1.3 million barrels per day of crude that has been taken off the market.
At this point, they’re just playing with us.
Look, we knew it was going to be a good summer for oil profits.
Back in May, I told you that oil wanted to go higher — that $70 oil was money in our pockets!
That day, I also mentioned that by the time oil climbed back into the $80s and started threatening $90 per oil, President Biden would be wishing he bought oil that cheap.
Well, that time has officially come.
Since then, WTI crude prices have climbed 25% higher to around $87 per barrel. Meanwhile, a barrel of Brent oil out of the North Sea has jumped nearly 30% to $90 per barrel.
Oil’s rise is right on schedule… and now is the time to do something about it.
Although the broader market has been flailing over the last few weeks, energy remains one of the hottest sectors in today’s market.
Here’s what it all comes down to: growth… or I should say the lack thereof.
Right now, the world is consuming more petroleum than ever before.
Recently, the EIA touted the fact that EVs and hybrids accounted for 16% of U.S. light duty vehicles.
And make no mistake, that’s a good thing!
Away from the limelight, however, the EIA’s weekly oil reports are telling another story. Over the last four weeks, U.S. petroleum demand has averaged 21.1 million barrels per day — 5% higher than a year ago; gasoline demand is up 3% over the same period last year.
This kind of robust demand has been draining our commercial stockpiles.
That’s where our growth problem comes into play, because everyone is still too optimistic when it comes to our domestic production.
Last week, we saw how the Biden administration was backtracking on its lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico. This week, the president announced that he was canceling the remaining oil and gas leases in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, overturning sales that were previously made.
Constraining future supply never ends well in a tight oil market.
That only leaves us with a few options to keep supply flowing.
Until next time, Keith Kohl A true insider in the technology and energy
markets, Keith’s research has helped everyday investors capitalize from the rapid adoption of new
technology trends and energy transitions. Keith connects with hundreds of thousands of readers as the
Managing Editor of Energy & Capital, as well as the
investment director of Angel Publishing’s
Energy Investor and Technology and
Opportunity. For nearly two decades, Keith has been providing in-depth coverage of the hottest
investment trends before
they go mainstream — from the shale oil and gas boom in the United States to the red-hot EV revolution
currently underway. Keith and his readers have banked hundreds of winning trades on the 5G rollout and on
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