Download now: Oil Price Outlook 2024

Oil Outlook 2024 Part 2: Exploring Demand Delusions

Keith Kohl

Written By Keith Kohl

Posted October 26, 2023

Which direction will oil prices head in 2024?

If you have a dime invested in the oil sector, it’s probably a question that you've mulled over in your head recently. 

Last week, we talked a little about the supply side of the equation and the potential supply shocks that we’ll feel next year.  

Personally, the mere fact that we’re courting the Maduro regime and Venezuela’s flailing oil industry is a sign that the Biden administration is throwing up Hail Marys at this point. 

Even without U.S. sanctions, few believe the country’s oil output will grow by any meaningful margin — our own EIA projects Venezuela’s production growth will be less than 200,000 barrels per day over the next year. 

Between pinning our hopes and prayers over a dying Venezuelan oil sector, the open hostility displayed between our current administration and the U.S. oil industry, and the continued output cuts by OPEC and Russia, you’d think things can’t get any worse. 

But can they?

The Demand Delusion

Let me be as clear as day about what’s going to happen next year:

In 2024, the world will consume more petroleum products than ever before.

The real question is how high global consumption will climb… And the answer depends on whom you’re asking.

According to the EIA, global liquid fuels consumption growth will contract to 1.3 million barrels per day:

eia oil

In the United States, our petroleum demand is expected to slightly increase by 150,000 barrels per day and average 20.22 million barrels per day. 

Meanwhile, the EIA sees further declines in global crude inventory during the first half of 2024 thanks to OPEC+ extending their output cuts. 

But we hold no illusion that U.S. demand will be the driving force behind growing global consumption. For that, we have to look to China and India, which together are expected to consume an average of 21.94 million barrels per day — about one-fifth of the world’s petroleum demand. 

You can bet we’ll all be paying more for those barrels, too. Sticking to the EIA’s price projections, WTI crude will average $94.19 per barrel. 

However, keep in mind that this sorely undercuts the incredible risk premium that geopolitical volatility could add to oil prices any day, especially given the powder keg inside the Middle East right now between Israel and Hamas. This month alone we’ve seen Iran calling for a complete oil embargo to be enacted. 

Remember, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year drove crude prices to over $120 per barrel.

Now ask yourself how high oil will jump on further escalation in the Middle East. 

What’s also interesting is that the EIA’s projections are a little too optimistic. 

The International Energy Agency has forecasted global oil demand to rise by 880,000 barrels per day in 2024, and OPEC is convinced that the number will be closer to 2.4 million barrels per day!

Regardless of who’s projections turn more accurate, the fact remains that demand will be at record levels. 

And that, dear reader, is what will open a window of opportunity for individual investors like us. The only thing left to do is be sure you’re in the right place at the right time — go ahead and check this one out for yourself.

Until next time,

Keith Kohl Signature

Keith Kohl

follow basicCheck us out on YouTube!

A true insider in the technology and energy markets, Keith’s research has helped everyday investors capitalize from the rapid adoption of new technology trends and energy transitions. Keith connects with hundreds of thousands of readers as the Managing Editor of Energy & Capital, as well as the investment director of Angel Publishing’s Energy Investor and Technology and Opportunity.

For nearly two decades, Keith has been providing in-depth coverage of the hottest investment trends before they go mainstream — from the shale oil and gas boom in the United States to the red-hot EV revolution currently underway. Keith and his readers have banked hundreds of winning trades on the 5G rollout and on key advancements in robotics and AI technology.

Keith’s keen trading acumen and investment research also extend all the way into the complex biotech sector, where he and his readers take advantage of the newest and most groundbreaking medical therapies being developed by nearly 1,000 biotech companies. His network includes hundreds of experts, from M.D.s and Ph.D.s to lab scientists grinding out the latest medical technology and treatments. You can join his vast investment community and target the most profitable biotech stocks in Keith’s Topline Trader advisory newsletter.

Angel Pub Investor Club Discord - Chat Now

Keith Kohl Premium



Hydrogen Fuel Cells: The Downfall of Tesla?

Lithium has been the front-runner in the battery technology market for years, but that is all coming to an end. Elon Musk is against them, but Jeff Bezos is investing heavily in them. Hydrogen Fuel Cells will turn the battery market upside down and we've discovered a tiny company that is going to make it happen...

Sign up to receive your free report. After signing up, you'll begin receiving the Energy and Capital e-letter daily.