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Fashion Plates and Market Darlings

Posted December 8, 2020

Clothes are back in fashion. I know, it sounds preposterous. But it's true. It would seem that people like to buy fancy duds to impress other people.

In fact, not two weeks ago, I complimented a co-worker's outfit. But it turned out that the hardworking person in question, who is unequaled in professionalism, had in fact signed up for Stitch Fix (NASDAQ: SFIX) — a public company that is traded on the Nasdaq stock exchange.  

This is a modern-day “outfit of the month” club whereby you tell some fashion expert what you like and they send you an outfit once a month. You can accept it or send it back — easy-peasy.

In the humble DeHaemer household, I must admit that our dress code has stagnated. What had once been suits and ties has degraded into bathrobes and slippers. Though I must confess that my robes are purchased from the Ric Flair catalog and so add a festive sparkle to the drudgery of lockdowns. 

The wife, who is in constant Zoom meetings, has gone with the COVID-19 dress mullet: business on top, sweatpants on the bottom.

But back to the action. We talk about ways to make money here at Energy and Capital, and the upshot is that Stitch Fix jumped 45% today, which is a classic case of beating earnings and blowing out the shorts.  

According to Yahoo Finance, our electronic fashion house reported earnings of $0.09 a share and booked $490.4 million in revenue. This obliterated those intelligent seers who had prognosticated from their summer homes that the company would see $481.2 million in revenue and lose $0.20 per share.

Indeed, this is one of those rare instances when the fabled analysts get it wrong. Look for new buy recommendations and upgraded earnings as the Wall Street crew is always a month late in making the correct call.

Should you buy Stitch Fix? Yes, of course. I mean, why not? Don’t get me wrong, I know nothing of the company other than what I have written above.  But one doesn't have to know about companies these days. 

It's an amateur market full of Robinhood traders and free money. The more millennial the company, the better. The only thing you have to know is that Congress is going on vacation starting Friday. Ergo, members will pass an 11th-hour stimulus bill right before they go home. 

In this way, both sides can claim credit while excoriating the opposition. And believe me, the opposition sucks.

This bill will create and spend upward of $1 trillion.  

A trillion dollars is a lot of money. It’s a million million. It is a third of U.S. annual tax income. With a trillion dollars, you could buy everyone in San Francisco their own apartment.

It is also a thousand billion dollars. You could buy an average Major League Baseball team 1,000 times.

In terms of size and using everyone's favorite scale, a trillion dollars laid out end to end would cover approximately 3.28 Rhode Islands.

Sure, the market is overextended. The Nasdaq is running above the top Bollinger Band. Total market cap-to-GDP has never been higher. IPOs are running hot, mergers are gangbusters, and speculation is rampant...

What of it? The government is giving out free money. The U.K. started its COVID-19 vaccinations today. There is light at the end of the tunnel. Who cares if COVID cases are spiking and shutdowns are ramping up…

Heck, for companies like Stitch Fix (NASDAQ: SFIX), Chewy (NYSE: CHWY), Teledoc (NYSE: TDOC), and all the other stay-at-home stocks, it is more good news.  

Look, the Beastie Boys and Chairman Powell have fought for our right to party. Someday the song will end and the proverbial punch bowl will be taken away. But it is not this day.

All the best,

Christian DeHaemer Signature

Christian DeHaemer

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Since 1995, Christian DeHaemer has specialized in frontier market opportunities. He has traveled extensively and invested in places as varied as Cuba, Mongolia, and Kenya. Chris believes the best way to make money is to get there first with the most. Christian is the founder of Bull and Bust Report and an editor at Energy and Capital. For more on Christian, see his editor's page.

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