In 2022, the world was told to brace for the oil shock of a generation.
Russia invaded Ukraine, sanctions flew, pipelines were weaponized, and analysts confidently penciled in triple-digit oil prices that were supposed to stay there… then almost nothing happened!
The world’s crude kept flowing as tankers were rerouted, and then suddenly discounted oil replaced disrupted barrels (especially for India and China).
What looked like a geopolitical earthquake slowly faded into background noise, and markets learned the wrong lesson — they decided oil wars no longer mattered.
But oil wars don’t end, dear reader, they simply migrate.
Today, the epicenter of geopolitical volatility has shifted from Eastern Europe to the Caribbean, where President Trump is doing something no modern U.S. president has been willing to do so openly — physically grabbing sanctioned oil before it reaches global markets, and then redirecting it home to U.S. ports.
This isn’t some theoretical military exercise, either. We’ve moved well beyond that as shadow tankers are being intercepted at sea and seizing the sanctioned oil onboard.
Gone are the days when Venezuelan crude slipped quietly into Asian refineries.
If it feels a little dramatic — it is!
But then again, Venezuela has always been dramatic when oil is involved.
The country sits on the world’s largest proven reserves, and has spent the last two decades proving that geology alone doesn’t produce barrels.
When Hugo Chávez nationalized Venezuela’s oil industry during his May Day takeover, he didn’t just take over oil fields, he seized every rig, truck, and drillbit in the country.
PDVSA went from a semi-functioning national oil company to a hollowed-out political instrument that was rife with corruption.
Production collapsed long before sanctions ever arrived.
But President Trump’s crackdown isn’t happening against a healthy oil exporter, but rather against an oil industry that’s been on life support for decades.
This is the critical shift traders are still underestimating.
Why? Well, if Russia taught the market how to route around sanctions, then Venezuela is teaching us all what happens when real enforcement takes place.
If Maduro resists and the standoff escalates, the endgame splits in two uncomfortable directions.
Either Venezuela’s exports are choked off even further, tightening an already fragile market, or regime change opens the door for Western oil companies to return and attempt a revival that would take years, not months.
Make no mistake, neither outcome brings relief anytime soon.
The reason oil markets haven’t reacted yet isn’t because the risk isn’t real.
It’s because traders are still anchored to the last war, where Russia taught the market how to survive sanctions.
But something different is taking place in Venezuela.
At least, that much should’ve been painfully clear over the last few weeks as U.S. naval forces have turned parts of the Caribbean into a de facto quarantine zone.
Shadow tankers linked to Venezuelan crude are being intercepted, seized, and diverted. In other words, this is far from the paperwork warfare that oil markets have been used to in the past. We’re talking about physical control of supply routes — the kind oil markets haven’t had to price in for decades.
In fact, Venezuela was already exporting far less than its reserves suggested it should.
Years of neglect, corruption, and capital flight hollowed out PDVSA long before Washington tightened the screws. Refineries operate intermittently as upgraders limp along. Output figures fluctuated not because of geology, but because of spare parts, power outages, and an inept work force.
That fragility matters now, because every barrel removed through force hits harder than a natural decline; there’s no price signal for producers to respond to. And there’s certainly no quick shale ramp-up or workaround waiting offshore.
The idea that regime change would quickly fix this misunderstands the damage, too.
Even if Maduro fell tomorrow, the infrastructure left behind would still take years (and years… and years) to rehabilitate. Every western supermajor would demand legal clarity, security guarantees, and massive upfront investment before risking capital.
Meanwhile, the broader oil market has less cushion than advertised. OPEC’s spare capacity remains concentrated in a handful of countries. U.S. shale growth has slowed under capital discipline, with the specter of sharp decline rates looming overhead.
This is why the “oil glut” narrative is so fragile.
It depends on everything going right at once, and Venezuela breaks that assumption.
Markets are still pricing oil as if this standoff will resolve itself.
Look, oil doesn’t need a new crisis.
We just need old ones to stop pretending they’re over.
Whether Venezuela collapses further or limps toward a Western-led revival, the path forward tightens supply well before it relieves it. Strict sanctions enforcement removes barrels immediately, while reconstruction adds them very slowly.
That imbalance is where oil rallies are born.
Geopolitical volatility didn’t disappear after Ukraine, it just simply changed coordinates. And when the market finally accepts that enforcement-driven disruptions behave differently than sanctions on paper, prices will adjust fast.
When that happens, individual investors like us won’t be rewarded for owning oil everywhere. They’ll be rewarded for owning it in one specific region where political risk is low, infrastructure is expanding, and the crude reaches the market no matter what’s happening offshore.
That’s where the must-own oil stocks will be found in 2026.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl
Check us out on YouTube!A true insider in the technology and energy markets, Keith’s research has helped everyday investors capitalize from the rapid adoption of new technology trends and energy transitions. Keith connects with hundreds of thousands of readers as the Managing Editor of Energy & Capital, as well as the investment director of Angel Publishing’s Energy Investor and Technology and Opportunity.
For nearly two decades, Keith has been providing in-depth coverage of the hottest investment trends before they go mainstream — from the shale oil and gas boom in the United States to the red-hot EV revolution currently underway. Keith and his readers have banked hundreds of winning trades on the 5G rollout and on key advancements in robotics and AI technology.
Keith’s keen trading acumen and investment research also extend all the way into the complex biotech sector, where he and his readers take advantage of the newest and most groundbreaking medical therapies being developed by nearly 1,000 biotech companies. His network includes hundreds of experts, from M.D.s and Ph.D.s to lab scientists grinding out the latest medical technology and treatments. You can join his vast investment community and target the most profitable biotech stocks in Keith’s Topline Trader advisory newsletter.
P.S. Gold’s Back on Top — But the Smart Money’s Skipping the Vault
In May, 2025 alone, global central banks increased their gold holdings by nearly 10% year-over-year.
Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, Poland, Singapore — all are quietly hoarding bullion like squirrels before winter. And according to the World Gold Council, central banks are projected to buy even more gold over the next five years… while simultaneously reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar.
This isn’t speculation.
It’s a coordinated exit.
You don’t make these kinds of moves unless you know what’s coming. And if you think they’re doing it for fun — or for jewelry — you’re missing the big picture.
Just imagine owning gold the same way that central banks do — but without the baggage?
