The Quietest Oil Boom Going Right Over Wall Street’s Head

Everyone misses things every now and then. 

Take the IEA, for example. Fatih Birol and friends missed hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil demand each year since 2022; few people batted an eye when those numbers were conveniently revised. 

Whether or not they were misreported time and again to manipulate a bearish narrative in the market, however, I’ll leave that up to you. But let’s face it, we knew these forecasts were made to be revised later. 

More interesting today is the fact that Wall Street is missing one of the quietest oil booms taking place in recent memory. 

But this isn’t your typical boom — how could it be?

Right now drillers across the U.S. are crossing their fingers that WTI prices can rally back above $70/bbl this summer. They’ve been languishing in this low price environment for far too long, and the longer crude stays this low, the longer it’ll take to recover. 

Over the last two weeks alone, the number of rigs actively drilling in the U.S. plummeted by 13 and are now at the lowest point they’ve been in three years. 

However, the most recent trade war flare-up between China and President Trump last Friday put a lot of pressure on any oil rally. Perhaps the president was a little pissed at getting rebuffed by the courts and wanted to take his frustration out on social media. 

Whatever it was, it worked. 

Couple these factors with OPEC+ considering a second output hike in July and it won’t matter how wrong the demand forecasts are — prices will stay in the basement. But as the world watches them with bated breath, nervously speculating whether the cartel will crack open its taps this July, a different oil story is playing out — one that’s getting far less attention but might ultimately matter a hell of a lot more.

So how could there possibly be a quiet boom taking place when the situation seems so bearish? 

Well, it all comes down to looking in the right spot. 

All you have to do is turn your eyes north and you’ll see what most are missing. 

Last year, few people took note of the voyage of the Dubai Angel, the 14-year old, 800-foot Aframax tanker that was parked in the Port of Vancouver. 

What they missed was the first of many barrels of Canadian crude that were loaded into the tanker and shipped across the Pacific to China. 

The Dubai Angel’s journey took place soon after the completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion. 

That’s right… Canada, the quiet neighbor with a polite smile and a massive reserve of heavy crude, is on the brink of an export revolution.

One year later, the reality should hit home that the newly expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline is now open for business, and it’s already sending tankers full of Canadian crude oil to China — a feat that seemed laughable just a few years ago. 

Up until now, Canadian oil companies were at the mercy of U.S. buyers. And make no mistake, we DO buy a lot of that Canadian crude — well over 4 million barrels of the heavy crude every single day. 

For Canada, this isn’t just about oil. It’s about independence. For too long, Alberta’s producers have been shackled to the U.S. Gulf Coast, forced to take steep discounts for their heavy crude due to lack of export capacity. But with Trans Mountain online, Western Canadian Select (WCS) finally has a world stage — and China, ever hungry for energy diversity, is ready to be a long-term buyer.

This shift isn’t symbolic. It’s seismic.

And here’s the best part for those Canadian producers: It didn’t take long at all before the Trans Mountain Pipeline hit full capacity!

In fact, more oil from that pipeline now ultimately ends up in China. Does anyone else remember when analysts thought that Canadian crude was destined for the U.S. west coast? They were wrong. 

Canada has a new crude junkie looking for their fix. Last year, Canadian exports to non-U.S. locations jumped 60%, most of which wound up in Asian markets like China, South Korea, Japan, and India. 

The moment those exports across the Pacific started surging, we knew it was only a matter of time before another expansion project would start. The pipeline’s operators have already hinted that another capacity upgrade is in the future, this time adding an additional 300,000 barrels per day.

We’re not the only ones who know this opportunity is flying past Wall Street’s radar, because this may have caught the attention of a legendary investor looking hard to find good value while oil prices are bottoming.

Here’s how you beat him to the punch.