To understand where oil is heading in 2026, it helps to look back at the quiet, uneasy stretch that began in 1978 and snowballed into an energy crunch.
It started as a scattered supply tightness — regional outages, rising inventories anxiety, and DOE warnings that refineries were feeling pressure. Nothing dramatic at first. Just enough discomfort to make people pay attention.
Then the oddest thing happened.
Instead of growing more concerned, the public relaxed.
Supplies steadied just long enough for everyone to convince themselves the scare was over. Beneath that calm, however, the problems were compounding.
Through late 1978 and into early 1979, international tensions and falling Iranian exports further tightened market fundamentals. By the time the crisis fully hit in 1979 — with lines stretching around the block and rationing debates raging in Congress — the fuse had been burning for months.
That’s the parallel that matters today.
Crude prices spent most of 2025 languishing in the mid- to low-$60s, and yet markets treated it as proof that global oil demand was finally topping out; that the world was flush with oversupply.
Unfortunately, the numbers refuse to cooperate with that narrative.
Here in the U.S., demand is rising across gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks. And we’re guzzling up roughly 21 million barrels of petroleum products every day.
Meanwhile, global consumption is not only holding steady above 104 million barrels per day — it’s climbing!
Even the permabears at the IEA are forced to admit that global demand will continue growing through 2050.
Not 2030.
Not 2035.
2050.
It’s not just the bulls that are optimistic over future demand growth.
Sure, OPEC has raised its 2026 demand forecast. But despite the fact that OPEC’s previous projections proved more accurate than the IEA’s, we cannot ignore the fact that OPEC members are the antithesis, the permabulls in global oil markets.
Even JP Morgan analysts see growth stretching well past the IEA’s estimates. Inventories aren’t ballooning, and countries like China and the U.S. are ready to fill their strategic reserves.
Freight and airline activity are accelerating. And efficiency gains — not price spikes — are the secret key keeping U.S. output growing.
This is the 1978 moment of false reassurance: A lull that looks like stability… but isn’t.
The fuse is burning again, quietly and steadily.
The Must-Own Oil Stocks for 2026
If the upstream side of the oil industry feels the pain of cheap crude, you can bet that the downstream side enjoys every minute of it.
Think about it..
Refiners buy oil, they don’t sell it. And the cheaper their feedstock is to purchase, the wider their margins — but only so long as demand for finished products stays firm.
And as we both know, demand isn’t just firm — it’s surging.
The United States alone consumes more than 20 million barrels per day of refined petroleum products.
Globally, the picture is the same: More mobility, more freight, more aviation, more chemicals, more energy-hungry infrastructure…. More, more, more!
And refiners are sitting in the sweetest spot in the entire value chain.
They’re buying crude at bargain-bin prices, turning that crude into the fuels the world cannot live without. And they’re doing it at a moment when demand forecasts — even the bleak ones — show nothing but growth for decades.
Some of the best refiners in the U.S. are considered must-own own stocks for 2026, and should hold a position in any diversified portfolio:
- Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) — America’s refining backbone. Nobody pivots faster, runs cleaner, or captures margin spikes more efficiently.
- Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) — A hybrid refining-midstream-chemicals powerhouse that thrives in high-volume, high-complexity markets.
- Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) — The largest U.S. refiner, armed with scale, integration, and the ability to mint cash when feedstock is cheap.
The investment herd often chases upstream drillers when oil is low, thinking a rebound will save them.
However, the hidden winners during cheap-crude cycles are almost always the refiners. In fact, each of these must-own oil stocks have performed admirably throughout 2025.
They turn low prices into high profits, quietly, steadily, and at a massive scale. In other words, their risk is capped, but their upside isn’t.
The Hidden Oil Gems Lead to Enormous Profits
Some more good news is that this story doesn’t end with downstream strength.
Another, quieter group of oil stocks in a win-win position are the lean, hyper-efficient drillers that have rewritten what it means to operate in the U.S. shale patch.
For years, shale was a debt-fueled frenzy. Companies would drill fast, and drill everywhere, whether prices justified it or not. If they didn’t have the capital for that drilling frenzy, companies would take on mountains of debt — all to get as many holes as they can in the ground.
Today, that era of the U.S. oil boom is dead.
And the sooner you realize that the real value is found in those disciplined oil companies betting on engineering gains, the sooner you’ll see the real winners ahead. The survivors are the companies that learned discipline.
For us, it sounds pretty obvious.
However, the results have reshaped the entire U.S. production outlook.
Wells that once took a month to drill now take a week. Multi-well pads that once required enormous crews now run on lean teams with advanced automation.
Longer laterals, higher-intensity completions, improved reservoir modeling, and precision targeting have allowed these companies to keep U.S. output climbing even while crude prices stayed low.
If oil stays cheap, they remain profitable because they're the ones still able to turn a profit from efficiency gains.
If oil surges in 2026, their cash flow turns parabolic.
Win-win.
And still, the market hasn’t priced this in. The herd is still living in the hangover of the 2025 supply-glut narrative.
It’s the warning bell ringing right now in the oil sector.
And those who hear it now are the ones who stand to gain the most when the fuse finally reaches the powder.
Go ahead and take a look at this one for yourself.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl
Check us out on YouTube!A true insider in the technology and energy markets, Keith’s research has helped everyday investors capitalize from the rapid adoption of new technology trends and energy transitions. Keith connects with hundreds of thousands of readers as the Managing Editor of Energy & Capital, as well as the investment director of Angel Publishing’s Energy Investor and Technology and Opportunity.
For nearly two decades, Keith has been providing in-depth coverage of the hottest investment trends before they go mainstream — from the shale oil and gas boom in the United States to the red-hot EV revolution currently underway. Keith and his readers have banked hundreds of winning trades on the 5G rollout and on key advancements in robotics and AI technology.
Keith’s keen trading acumen and investment research also extend all the way into the complex biotech sector, where he and his readers take advantage of the newest and most groundbreaking medical therapies being developed by nearly 1,000 biotech companies. His network includes hundreds of experts, from M.D.s and Ph.D.s to lab scientists grinding out the latest medical technology and treatments. You can join his vast investment community and target the most profitable biotech stocks in Keith’s Topline Trader advisory newsletter.
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