President Trump is hungry for $40/bbl oil.
He wants it. He wants the political win that would ultimately come from dirt-cheap oil prices. He wants to get in front of a ravenous crowd to proclaim at the top of his lungs that he brought cheap gasoline prices to the American public, and then see their feverish smiles. This would be thrilling for him.
Analysts over at Goldman Sachs recently reiterated this burning desire by the President, suggesting that his focus is on oil and U.S. energy dominance, as well as the preference for WTI crude to trade between $40 and $50 per barrel.
A few weeks ago, President Trump nearly got his wish as oil prices cratered and bottomed around $55 per barrel. — he could taste the victory.
Why wouldn’t he want it? After all, when President Trump took office the first time, WTI crude was trading for about $45 per barrel:
Yes, President Trump wants $40/bbl oil… again!
But you know what? He’s not going to get it.
And there’s one oil chart Trump hasn’t seen yet that is your key to successfully trading oil today.
If there’s been one recurring theme that I’ve tried to hammer home for our investment community here over the last few years, it’s that the “drill, baby, drill” mentality is dead in the water.
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The game in the U.S. oil patch has changed radically since President Trump’s first term, back when the debt-fueled drilling frenzy was muted by the Saudis pushing more barrels onto the market in an effort to cripple shale drillers.
So it’s with a bit of quirky déjà vu this week that we watched President Trump travel to Saudi Arabia, just as OPEC+ announced it was accelerating its output boost in June by 411,000 barrels per day.
Normally, this kind of move would strike fear into the hearts of oil bulls worldwide. And yet, crude prices didn’t plummet on the news. In fact, the Saudis actually raised their prices to Asia.
If you want to know why, we can just let OPEC show us. In the group’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report, it was clear that the fundamentals are starting to tighten in their favor. While OPEC kept its global demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.3 million barrels per day, it slashed its outlook for non-OPEC+ supply growth to 800,000 barrels per day; U.S. liquids production is expected to remain relatively flat as producers cut spending by 9% this year, then another 7% in 2026.
Mind you, this comes at a time when the global economy is expected to grow at a steady pace of 2.9%, then another 3.1% next year. And with the end of the trade war between China and the U.S. a real possibility, we’ll likely see China’s economy grow as much as 4.6% this year.
But what most people don’t realize is that U.S. drillers still have one ace left to play in their hand.
In fact, you can see it plain as day in the most important oil chart that hasn’t hit Trump’s desk yet.
The “drill, baby, drill” mentality has been long supplanted by the drive for efficiency and cost-savings.
Take a look below, and you’ll find the single-greatest reason behind the success of U.S. oil production:
As you can see, the number of well completions at the same location has more than doubled since the early days of the shale boom.
I couldn’t have highlighted this fact better last week when we talked about the drilling and completion innovations that have become the norm in prolific oil-producing regions like the Permian Basin.
However, those new completion methods are now getting replaced by even better techniques — and that’s the key to successfully trading oil today.
It’s no longer good enough to frac two wells simultaneously, because some of the best Permian drillers are now able to frac up to six wells at the same time. This has helped cut well costs by more than $1 million, which is not to mention cutting the time it takes to drill and complete these wells by 25%.
Zipper-frac methods gave way to simul-fracs, which are now moving aside for trimul-frac operations.
Unfortunately, these investment gems in the Permian Basin won’t stay hidden and off the market’s radar for long once oil prices start their summer rally.
I want you to see the details behind this Permian oil stock for yourself before that happens — here’s everything you need to know.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl
Check us out on YouTube!A true insider in the technology and energy markets, Keith’s research has helped everyday investors capitalize from the rapid adoption of new technology trends and energy transitions. Keith connects with hundreds of thousands of readers as the Managing Editor of Energy & Capital, as well as the investment director of Angel Publishing’s Energy Investor and Technology and Opportunity.
For nearly two decades, Keith has been providing in-depth coverage of the hottest investment trends before they go mainstream — from the shale oil and gas boom in the United States to the red-hot EV revolution currently underway. Keith and his readers have banked hundreds of winning trades on the 5G rollout and on key advancements in robotics and AI technology.
Keith’s keen trading acumen and investment research also extend all the way into the complex biotech sector, where he and his readers take advantage of the newest and most groundbreaking medical therapies being developed by nearly 1,000 biotech companies. His network includes hundreds of experts, from M.D.s and Ph.D.s to lab scientists grinding out the latest medical technology and treatments. You can join his vast investment community and target the most profitable biotech stocks in Keith’s Topline Trader advisory newsletter.
