The IEA’s Bombshell Oil Confession

Everyone has an agenda today. 

I do. You do. Investors, Wall Street governments, media… everyone. And it’s up to us to be able to peer back that curtain and see the truth behind every situation. 

It’s no different in the oil and gas markets. 

But this isn’t some devastating revelation. We’ve known for years that there’s been a war over controlling the narrative for oil prices. Unfortunately, that manipulation is simply a part of the game that’s played. 

The good part is that it’s rather easy for us to recognize those biases for what they are. After all, we both have the same interest — to capitalize on opportunities in the market. 

In recent years, the narrative battle was aggressively waged between the IEA and OPEC. Each pushed their own agenda against the other, OPEC yearning for higher oil prices to generate more revenue and the IEA desperate to push its green transition. 

The only problem is that one of them has been lying to us for years, and now they're finally coming clean and admitting a harsh truth for the world to accept. 

The IEA’s Bombshell Oil Confession

The veteran members of our investment community here know that I rarely say, “I told you so,” or any type of gloating when proven right… rarely. 

For years, I believed there was a significant disconnect between the oil markets and reality, driven by overly bearish sentiment concerning the supply/demand fundamentals in the oil market.  

My biggest gripe has always been with the IEA. The IEA’s net zero roadmap was never based in reality, yet that didn’t stop them from consistently putting out bearish demand forecasts over the last few years. 

Keep in mind, every time one of those forecasts were released, it directly put downward pressure on oil prices. 

So, you can imagine our utter lack of surprise recently when the IEA came out and openly said their numbers were wrong. 

In its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA quietly made some historical revisions to what it reported a few years ago. In fact, the IEA said its previous demand numbers for 2022 were 250,000 barrels per day more than they reported, as well as 330,000 barrels per day more than reported in 2023, and 350,000 barres per day more than reported in 2024. 

The IEA just kept getting worse at reporting numbers that were relied upon by analysts, companies, the global economy, and more importantly… US! 

That’s right, just one stroke of the keyboard and those inventory builds that were reported over the last few years simply vanished into thin air. 

But why would they ever want to present facts that were counter to their chosen agenda. 

Now it’s time for some payback. 

Profiting From the IEA’s Oil Confession

Is the IEA having its come-to-Jesus moment?

Not exactly, but it’s close enough. You see, along with the IEA’s confession over misreporting demand numbers for the past three years, it has also coincidentally raised its demand projections for 2025 to 741,000 barrels per day, then another 760,000 barrels per day in 2026. 

Meanwhile, the IEA boosted its economic projections, and now expects the global economy to grow by 2.8% annual over the next two years. 

You know it's a sad day when OPEC one-ups someone on transparency. OPEC still sees global demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day this year. 

But this goes beyond the demand side of the equation. The IEA’s projections still feel overly optimistic on non-OPEC supply growth. Is it only a matter of time before we see the IEA go back and change their numbers again? Perhaps. 

The longer crude prices stay in the low-$60/bbl range, the larger the impact it will have on U.S. output over the medium- and long-term. 

So what will it take to push oil prices higher?

At this point, I think you know the answer is: Not much. 

This goes for the entire spectrum of catalysts that are at hand, from leaks of Israel’s imminent strike against Iran’s nuclear facility, or further acceptance from permabears like the IEA that oil demand is simply far healthier and stronger than they previously thought. 

That alone will set up oil stocks for one helluva run this summer.

My only question is: Is your portfolio prepared?

I recommend you check this opportunity out for yourself firsthand, it's the only solution to a full-blown U.S. oil crisis.