The Alaskan Road Nobody Wanted (Until China Reminded Us Why)

For years, environmental groups fought a 211-mile industrial road through northern Alaska. 

Once completed, the Ambler Road would cut through remote wilderness to reach one of the world’s richest undeveloped copper deposits.

I’d give you three guesses what happened next, but I have a feeling you only need one — permits were denied as lawsuits started piling up and the project stalled.

Then, China restricted rare earth exports during trade negotiations last year.

So in October, President Trump reversed the permit denial and ordered fast-track approvals.

Why would he do that, you ask? 

Well, it’s because the road unlocks the Ambler Mining District — copper, cobalt, gallium, germanium, zinc, silver, gold, and lead deposits. 

But the federal government didn’t just approve permits. It ended up taking a 10% equity stake in the mining company, with warrants for another 7.5%. 

In total, the government invested $35.6 million in a strategic project that is expected to create 2,730 jobs and generate roughly $1.1 billion in state revenue.

Of course, what this also does is give us a peek into Trump’s critical minerals playbook: identify domestic deposits, fast-track permitting, deploy federal capital through equity stakes, and build processing infrastructure before the next export restrictions start taking place. 

The Alaskan Road Nobody Wanted (Until China Reminded Us Why)

Look, the Ambler Road isn’t isolated, but rather a coordinated federal strategy across multiple agencies.

Some of you probably remember a year ago, when Trump invoked the Defense Production Act. He gave the DoD authority to direct industrial production… thus enter the National Energy Dominance Council to “cut through bureaucracy and get projects done.”

Believe me, the timelines here are pretty aggressive — 10 days to compile mineral projects for immediate approval, 15 days for FAST-41 fast-track nominations, and up to 45 days for coordinated federal action.

However, the most radical part of this situation is that the U.S. is taking direct equity stakes in these companies. We’ve moved beyond loans and grants, folks — we’re talking about actual ownership with board seats and IP oversight.

Last month, we got the next page from President Trump’s playbook to boost our domestic production of critical minerals; he called it Project Vault — a $12 billion strategic critical minerals reserve for civilian use.

And so far he’s getting some big players in this game: GE Vernova, Boeing, Clarios, Western Digital, as well as physical warehouses across the U.S.

So why does this matter? Well, always keep in mind that the U.S. is 100% import-reliant for at least a dozen critical minerals, and more than 50% reliant for another 29!

Meanwhile, China controls 90% rare earth processing, 70% cobalt refining, 85% lithium-ion battery production.

I mentioned last week that F-35s require 920 pounds of rare earths. That’s not to mention the fact that EVs need lithium, cobalt, rare earth magnets, or that smartphones, wind turbines, semiconductors — all dependent on minerals processed in China.

Right now, we mine materials domestically, ship raw ore to China for processing, then buy back processed materials at Chinese prices under Chinese export controls.

When Beijing flexes that monopoly (at their own whims), then supply chains seize.

That’s one reason why the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial kicked off in early February, which brought representatives from 54 countries to Washington.

The new Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement proposed creating “preferential trading zones” that would use price floors enforced by tariffs to combat China’s practice of dumping minerals below market prices to undercut competitors and maintain dominance. 

So far, we’ve inked bilateral agreements with Australia, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, and Saudi Arabia as part of this broader strategy.

Of course, the challenges are real and they’re not going away anytime soon.

Remember, permitting still takes years even with fast-track procedures in place. Then there are the processing facilities which require three to five years of construction at minimum, and also the skilled labor shortages for the specialized chemical engineers these projects need, and environmental litigation risks that still persist. 

But here’s the catch… 

Trump isn’t waiting for all these obstacles to disappear before moving forward.

The 1973 Lesson We Keep Forgetting

In 1973, the U.S. imported 100% of its chromium, 98% of its manganese, 91% of its cobalt — all critical for steel and defense.

And yet, Congress didn’t care. In fact, the industrial sector didn’t worry much either. 

That’s when the oil embargo struck. 

In one sudden move, Arab producers proved that resource-rich nations could gain an incredible amount of leverage from anyone who relies on them for supply. 

What came next was a shock as stagflation settled in and massive lines started forming at gas station,s as we stared at an economic crisis.

It’s been 53 years since that oil crisis, and it has taught us a valuable lesson about resource security. 

And now we’ve got the same vulnerability, just a different commodity.

This year, China restricted rare earth exports to Japan after the Prime Minister suggested defending Taiwan. Suddenly, we saw permits stall as prices spike… forcing manufacturers to scramble for supply.

You can see the pattern, right? Whenever geopolitical volatility flares, China reaches for the first piece of leverage they control — rare earths. 

Except, the difference this time is that we’re building alternatives before the full embargo.

Now we have Project Vault stockpiling $12 billion worth of strategic minerals, and the federal government grabbing their own piece of the pie as projects like the Amblar road get underway. 

The question isn’t whether China will weaponize rare earths again — we know they will!

No, the real question is whether or not we’ll have secured our supply before it happens. 

And for the first time, the answer might be yes.

This is something you gotta check out for yourself right away.