In 2007, I made a prediction about electric vehicles that didn’t pan out.
In 15 years, global sales for electric vehicles would hit 1 million.
Boy, was I way off base on that one.
Global EV sales actually hit 1 million a lot sooner than I expected.
It was in 2016 that the global EV market hit the 1 million mark. Four years later, in 2020, we hit the 10 million mark. And here’s where it gets really interesting…
Just two years later, global EV sales in 2022 are expected to clock in at around 10.6 million.
This is a very big deal, and 2023 will be no slouch either.
Between hundreds of millions of dollars in new tax incentives in nearly a dozen countries, including the U.S. and China, and 25 countries with mandates in place to phase out the sale of internal combustion vehicles, there will be no shortage of buyers in 2023.
As a side note, the state of California also has a mandate in place to phase out electric cars. While California may not be its own country, it does boast the fifth-largest economy in the world.
Although I’m not singing the praises of government intervention — I oppose it completely — these new government initiatives are absolutely going to give the electric vehicle market a shot of steroids next year, and this should not be ignored out of spite. The bottom line is that the future of transportation is electric. Criticize it if you want, but make sure you profit from it too.
Current analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance indicates that by 2030, more than half of all new vehicle sales in the U.S. will be electric. And Morgan Stanley projections indicate that globally, electric vehicles sales will surpass those of internal combustion vehicles by 2038. I actually think it’ll be sooner based on the continued rapid growth of the market in China, the U.S., and the EU.
This is happening.
Of course, as you can imagine, I’ve pored through every EV prediction out there, and most of the predictions I’ve seen are not surprising, particularly in regard to new sales numbers. However, there was one interesting comment in a prediction piece that I thought was worth sharing.
This comes from auto analyst Scott Case, who writes:
We’ll see an increase in the rate of ICE vehicle leasing (vs. outright purchasing) as the fear of trying to resell an ICE car in five–seven years starts to creep into new car buyers’ minds. No one wants to be the last person selling an ICE car when there’s no buyers.
I found this particularly interesting because it suggests that the tipping point in the transition away from internal combustion to vehicle electrification is underway. In other words, the proliferation of electric vehicles has been so rapid — indeed, it’s nearly impossible to drive anywhere without seeing one these days — that consumers now see electric vehicles not as toys for the rich but simply the next evolution of cars. Our analysts have traveled the world over, dedicated to finding the best and most profitable investments in the global energy markets. All you have to do to join our Energy and Capital investment community is sign up for the daily newsletter below.
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Of course, it goes well beyond cars too.
As you know, I continue to scream from the rooftops to get some exposure to the electric bus market, which Bloomberg reports will exceed the growth rate of electric passenger cars because in almost all charging configurations, electric buses have a lower total cost of ownership than conventional municipal buses.
Globally, the electric bus market is expected to grow from 78,240 units in 2021 to 1,383,480 units by 2029, representing a CAGR of 43.2% (2022–2029). This exceeds the CAGR of the light passenger electric vehicle market.
For energy investors, this is particularly good news as finding the right electric bus stock to buy is insanely easy. There’s really only one pure play in the space, and it’s been crushing it on revenue while adding market share at a record pace.
And as for my EV predictions for 2023, they're pretty simple:
- Total global EV sales will clock in at 15.8 million.
- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will continue to own a large chunk of the market but will lose additional market share to BYD (OTCBB: BYDDF), GM (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), and Hyundai (OTCBB: HYMTF).
- The electric bus market will grow significantly faster than the light duty passenger vehicle market.
Jeff is the founder and managing editor of Green Chip Stocks. For more on Jeff, go to his editor’s page.
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