Recently, there was a coup d’etat in Turkey. Despite being widely reported as a failed coup, it was a successful autogolpe, or self-coup.
Autogolpes have been so common in South America over the past century that they invented a word for it.
Wikipedia describes an autogolpe:
A form of putsch or coup d’état in which a nation’s leader, despite having come to power through legal means, dissolves or renders powerless the national legislature and unlawfully assumes extraordinary powers, not granted under normal circumstances. Other measures taken may include annulling the nation’s constitution, suspending civil courts and having the head of government assume dictatorial powers.
That is what is happening in Turkey. President Erdogan, despite coming to power legally, has seen his popularity slipping. The Kurdish minority won a large legislative election over a year ago. Erdogan reacted by restarting the terrorist civil war against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
Now, after the autogolpe, the Mirror is reporting that up to 60,000 people have been detained. Amnesty International reports lack of food and water, as well as beatings, rape, and torture.
AI says that 650 to 800 soldiers are being held in the police sports hall, and 300 of them have been beaten. Opposition news outlets have been shuttered. Journalists, teachers, academics, and even children have been arrested.
This is straight out of the dictator’s handbook.
NATO
The problem with this, of course, is that Turkey is member of NATO. The U.S. is pledged to defend the country if attacked. The Incirlik Air Force Base in Turkey is a U.S. asset from which to bomb Syria. The base has several dozen tactical B61 thermonuclear warheads, which, due to age and technical reasons, have more symbolic status than military use.
Times Change
Despite years of bombing, ISIS is still a power. The U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East is so bad that it has brought Saudi Arabia and Israel together.
Now it seems the Kurds and ISIS are aligning Turkey and Russia.
On the backburner, steaming at a low boil, there are other factors, including Turkey’s deal with the EU over Syrian refugees and the U.S. residence of Fethullah Gulen, who Erdogan is blaming for the coup as well as the White House/CIA.
If Gulen isn’t extradited, Turkey will retaliate.
Erdogan is also saying he will bring back capital punishment. If he does, the EU will retaliate by calling off the money for the refugee deal at the very least.
Putin and Erdogan
All of this seems like a plan that Putin and Erdogan put in place months ago. The purge feels like a KGB plan.
According to the Guardian:
Before the failed coup, Ankara and Moscow had already taken steps to patch up their relationship, which had suffered a setback last November when Turkey shot down a Russian plane that violated Turkish airspace from Syria. Following a 27 June letter Erdoğan sent to Putin, expressing regrets, the two leaders had agreed to meet during the first week of August to discuss “normalisation”.
The Kremlin has already taken note of the developments: on 29 June, Russian airline Aeroflot lifted its ban on flights to Turkey, a signal from Moscow of its willingness to lift sanctions precipitated by the plane incident. Putin is likely to show up at his meeting with Erdoğan with a goody basket, such as promises of boosting tourism, trade, construction and pipeline deals.
Putin and Erdogan are set to speak the first week of August. Turkey wants the Kurds curbed. Russia wants its ally Assad to remain in power.
Meanwhile, back at the skyscraper, Donald Trump says it looks like Turkey is on the side of ISIS based on the oil. ISIS trucks oil out via Turkey and in turn gets supplies and hospital stays.
Trump has vowed to go hard at ISIS and has threatened to pull out of NATO. Hillary is a known warmonger with her own agenda in the Middle East.
Putin and Erdogan have just a few more months to play games.
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France and Germany
The EU is already under strain from the Brexit and Italian banks. Now it has to deal with a series of terrorist attacks, as well as crimes by refugees. The mood in the EU has changed. People are angry and want their leaders to protect them or at least get revenge.
This bubbling stew of hate and geopolitics is coming to a head. Accidents happen, and conflict rises in places no one anticipates.
Gold goes up in difficult times.
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Gold
The price of gold topped out at $1,364 an ounce before pulling back to $1,313 today. The next support level is $1,292, and I’m buying again under $1,300.
I like silver even more, as it trades at $19.40/oz., down from $20.26/oz. two weeks ago.
All the best,
Christian DeHaemer
Check us out on YouTube!Christian is the founder of Bull and Bust Report and an editor at Energy and Capital. For more on Christian, see his editor’s page.
