Here's the List of Winners and Losers, Great Calls, and Flameouts
2022 Predictions: How Did I Do?
It’s that time of year when I go though the economic predictions I made last year to see if I was right. Next week, I’ll put out more absurd predictions for 2023.
Here is what I wrote last December; predictions-wise, it's a mixed bag:
- 2022 will be the year that blockchain starts to become workable. Games, sports gambling, and financials will make huge strides forward. Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) and POSaBIT (OTCMKTS: POSAF) will be big stock winners.
Coinbase got killed and is down about 75%. POSaBIT has held up pretty well considering it's a blockchain stock. It's down about 22%. Many large companies and some countries are using blockchain in areas big and small. Despite the sell-off of individual coins, the technology is being put into practice albeit at a modest pace.
- The price of housing will continue to go up. Demographics indicate that the huge bulge in millennials hitting their prime nesting years means demand for housing will remain strong. Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) and Lennar (NYSE: LEN) will beat the market.
According to Redfin, housing prices are up 2.9% year to date. The number of homes sold is down 37%. Lennar beat the S&P 500 by a few points; Toll Brothers did not.
- COVID will finally burn itself out by late winter/early spring. The ruling class will attempt to keep it alive until the midterms in November. Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) will underperform.
That’s pretty much what happened. These stocks are down about 17%, but the market is down more.
- Tourism stocks that don’t rely on cheap oil will benefit in rebound 2.0 — buy hotels, not airlines.
Hotels have beat the market by about 15%.
- Queen Elizabeth of England will die. The new king Charles' farcical bumbling coupled with the other twits around the throne will renew calls for the abolishment of the monarchy. This will lead to a buying opportunity on the LSE.
Well, I got this one right. It could be the right time to buy some U.K. stocks if you are a contrarian.
- You will get COVID and not bother getting tested.
That happened. True.
- Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) will continue to beat the market.
- China’s continued crackdown on its best and brightest will lead to a famous defector. Companies will continue to move factories back to the United States to shorten supply chains and be closer to cheap energy.
No famous defector, but crackdowns continued for most of the year. Supply chains moved to the U.S. and Mexico in a big way. In fact, I am very bullish on Mexico replacing much of Chinese manufacturing. I’ve written about it in a free report you can access here.
- Oil and gas services like Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) will soar as fracking gets back on track.
Halliburton has almost doubled. Our analysts have traveled the world over, dedicated to finding the best and most profitable investments in the global energy markets. All you have to do to join our Energy and Capital investment community is sign up for the daily newsletter below.
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- Natural gas exporters will see a demand spike/share price surge in February as Europe gets hit with the full force of its absurd energy policies. Share prices will slide in the spring.
Cheniere Energy's (NYSEAMERICAN: LNG) share price more than doubled this year before selling off a bit over the last month.
- Automobiles will continue to be in short supply, and ordering new cars from the factory and waiting a few months for delivery will become the norm.
This was true in the first half of the year, but the auto market is now oversupplied with used cars. The high-end G-Wagons by Mercedes, a favorite of crypto bros, have huge discounts.
- Powerboats and RVs will flood the market as the price of upkeep and gasoline, as well as rising interest rates, force 2020 COVID buyers to reconsider their choices.
Thor Industries just reported a 22% decline in revenue. Towable RVs declined by 41.2%. RV registrations fell 23% in October. Denison Yachting reported that boat sales were down 9% in the U.S. and 19% in Asia last quarter.
- Coal demand in China will continue to increase, counteracting the reduction of coal power elsewhere.
Coal use just hit record highs.
- The Federal Reserve will hike rates three times.
The Fed has hiked seven times this year. The fed funds rate is at 4.5% — the highest it's been in 15 years.
- This will cause a two-month sell-off of speculative stocks.
Two months, 12 months — it’s semantics, really.
- Dividend and defensive stocks will outperform.
This is true. Companies like Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) are up for the year, as are utilities.
- The Baltimore Orioles will lose 101 games.
The mighty Orioles went 83-79-0, a winning record. How about that? That was one I was happy to get wrong.
That wasn't too bad, as far as predictions go. More were correct than wrong. Next week, I’ll offer up some more ideas: the savvy, the foolhardy, and the ridiculous, plus my big three trends for 2023.
All the best,
Christian DeHaemer Christian is the founder of Bull and Bust Report and an editor at Energy and Capital. For more on Christian, see his editor's page.
Christian is the founder of Bull and Bust Report and an editor at Energy and Capital. For more on Christian, see his editor's page.
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