There is a hoary old Wall Street saying that goes, "Buy the rumor, sell the news." It's good advice. It works. Once the catalyst has transpired, you need another one to drive more share price appreciation. The sooner you hear the rumor, the more money you make.
Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal put out an article saying that OPEC was talking about hiking production by 500,000 barrels per day. This would happen during its next meeting on December 4, 2022, a day before Russian oil sanctions go into effect.
This new deal would be quid pro quo for President Biden telling a federal court that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should have sovereign immunity from a lawsuit regarding that brutal affair with agent provocateur Jamal Khashoggi.
Crude oil took a header on the open. The price fell from $79 to $75 before coming back to $79.
The rebound was due to OPEC+ saying The Wall Street Journal story was a bunch of hogwash and that Biden was still the laughingstock of the Middle East.
To top it off, Russia came out and said it wouldn’t abide by any price cap or sell to any price cap nations. This was the exact scenario J.P. Morgan outlined recently that could send oil to $200 a barrel.
Price-Fixing Fools
If you haven't heard, the price cap was created by the Western brain trust who never took an Econ course, read a book about Wall Street, had a paper route, or in any way earned money beyond sucking on the government teat.
They think they can simply declare a price they will pay for oil and Putin won’t tell them to go pound sand. They will and he will. What you may not know is that oil tanker companies have been selling off their old ships to anonymous buyers at high prices. These are the tankers that are over 15 years old, have high maintenance costs, and in the past went to scrapyards. Our analysts have traveled the world over, dedicated to finding the best and most profitable investments in the global energy markets. All you have to do to join our Energy and Capital investment community is sign up for the daily newsletter below.
This dark fleet will move Russian oil to countries such as India, China, and whoever else wants to thumb their nose at the West. These rust buckets also have the glorious distinction of no regulations, insurance, oversight, or seasoned crew, and will likely lead to an environmental disaster.
These unintended consequences, when they happen, should be ceremoniously placed, with the blowing of kazoos, at the feet of the German Green Party where they belong.
Price fixing does not work. It has never worked, and it will never work — just ask Eric Garner. It will be enforced in a similar way but on a grander scale with the possibility of the U.S. Navy sinking a Chinese-owned oil tanker.
Biden Ban
Furthermore, you may not know that President Biden has the power to unilaterally ban U.S. exports under an Obama bill from 2015. When the price cap doesn't work and oil prices shoot up, he will make more bad choices and elect to keep U.S. oil and natural gas at home. This ban will further slow trade, increase the price, and reduce supply of distillates such as jet fuel and diesel even more than they are already.
This economic ineptitude will be beneficial to countries like Saudi Arabia and others who will happily supply all takers at whatever high price the market will handle. If this scenario plays out, there is one country in South America that will be the big winner; in the last few years, it discovered 11 billion barrels of crude just offshore.
It’s called Guyana, and it's the most exciting story in oil — a true rags-to-riches oil-palooza. I’ve discovered four companies that should make out like bandits, and one is already flying. Find out more here.
To your wealth,
Christian DeHaemer Christian is the founder of Bull and Bust Report and an editor at Energy and Capital. For more on Christian, see his editor’s page.
Check us out on YouTube!
