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U.S. Shale Basins

The New Leader in Natural Gas

By Keith Kohl
Tuesday, January 19th, 2010

I have no doubt that you'll be calling shale gas a game-changer... that is, if you aren't already.

Three years ago, I never would have thought I'd be seeing anyone else except Russia atop the energy throne.

At the time, Russia was an absolute energy giant, holding the world's largest natural gas reserves, the second largest coal reserves, and the eighth largest oil reserves.

Furthermore, this energy powerhouse was the second largest oil exporter and the world's leading natural gas exporter. Last year, the country even managed to surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's leading oil exporter.

Russia was practically unstoppable.

Unfortunately, the party didn't last...

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That's right, Russia has finally been dethroned. In 2009, the U.S. replaced Russia as the world's largest natural gas producer.

So what happened?

Well, the 12% decline in gas output certainly didn't help. A few people even pointed to lower demand from Europe and the rest of Russia's customers.

Let's give credit where credit is due. Shale gas basins across the U.S. have been gaining a huge amount of attention over the last several years. In fact, unconventional gas is expected to account for more than half of U.S. natural gas production during the next decade.

But let me ask you this: At what point does unconventional become conventional?

It wasn't too long ago that people considered offshore oil unconventional. It's a boundary that is continually being pushed back as technology develops and improves.

Feel free to weigh in on the topic by clicking the comment button below. I'm rather curious what your thoughts are on the subject.

The U.S. Shale Gas Basins

Today, I'll just stick with those U.S. shale plays.
First one:

The Barnett Shale

Believe me, if Russia isn't worried about shale gas, they certainly should be...

Russia's customers are already looking at their own shale potential. Total, one of France's largest companies (and also one of the six "supermajor" oil companies in the world), recently took at 25% stake in Chesapeake's Barnett Shale gas fields. The deal gave Chesapeake $800 million in cash and approximately $1.45 billion toward developing the Barnett fields over the next six years.

If the French wanted to start somewhere, they couldn't have picked a better spot.

As you know, breaking through the Barnett Shale is how the U.S. shale boom began, and its success soon spread to other shale plays. The Barnett is also currently the largest onshore natural gas field in the U.S. However, it's also most likely near (or past) peak production. The experience in extracting the shale gas is the real value here. To date, there is no shale gas production in Europe.

The Haynesville Shale

If we're talking about upcoming players in shale gas, you'd be remiss to leave out the Haynesville.

While areas like the Barnett are considered a mature play, it's easy to bet on the shale gas located near Shreveport, Louisiana. Within the next 10 years, the Haynesville Shale will be the largest gas field in North America. By 2020, approximately 5.2 Bcf/d is expected to be pumped out of this shale play.

Of course, drilling these shale wells can cost about $6 million a piece or more, depending on the location.

Then again, the opportunity is there. You see, the latest Louisiana land rush has already pulled in gains for most of my readers. I know for a fact that they're batting a thousand so far. And I prefer to put my newer readers on the same playing field, so feel free to check out their Haynesville plays for yourself in this new report.

The Marcellus Shale

The only other shale formation with as much potential as the Haynesville is the Marcellus Shale. Stretching from New York to West Virginia, the Marcellus has become a hotbed of activity.

Leading players like Range Resources (NYSE: RRC) have been successful so far. Range production has been growing for 27 consecutive quarters, with more than 1.4 million acres in the Marcellus play.

If you recall, the latest buzz over the Marcellus Shale is the fight over drilling in the New York City watershed. The interesting part, however, is that it's not exactly a fight. Nobody is trying to drill in the watershed. In fact, the one company with leases in the area — Chesapeake Energy — has repeatedly stated that drilling in the area wouldn't be worth their time.

Regardless of the accusations flying back and forth, it's clear that companies are going to steer clear of drilling in those controversial locations — Just look at the uproar from merely holding leaseholds in the area.

The Eagle Ford Shale

Located beneath the Austin Chalk and Edwards formation in South Texas, the Eagle Ford Shale is relatively new on the shale scene. Don't feel too bad if you've never heard of it before. You're not alone. This shale play is only now attracting attention.

I expect more companies will take notice as a recovery takes place. For now, there are a few companies poking around, including Conoco Phillips (NYSE: COP).

Looking ahead... Is Canada Out of the Picture?

The last time I talked about the shale gas boom in the U.S., a few of you were quick to ask how it will affect our relationship with Canada. After all, Canada is our largest source for natural gas imports...

I wouldn't be too concerned about it, especially considering that Canada has its own fair share of prospective shale plays. Of course, there's one in particular that I've had my eye on for the last two years. I'll tell you all about it next week, including the one company that will benefit the most from Canada's future shale gas plays.

Until next time,

keith kohl

Keith Kohl
Energy and Capital

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Comments:

Comment by Eric Johnson on 2010-01-19
Keith,
You do mention the Eagle Ford shale play...however, below the Eagle Ford also lies the Pearsall shale.

There are quite a few other very good size companies who have quietly taken substantial positions in the play, and now Chesapeake is moving in full force to take down a very large number of acres...this play looks to produce both gas and oil, depending on your location.

Extensive data is, as you know, not yet available to most people from the early stages of this play, suffice to say the formations compare very favorably to the Marcellus from a T.O.C., perm, porosity, etc. standpoint...much more to come from this area.
Comment by Clyde Harrison on 2010-01-19
Beware of the depletion rates these shales exhibit. This will require a tremendous continuing drilling pace. Factor in the regulatory environment and the anti-frac movement and the US is facing some headwinds for continued developement at the pace we've been accustomed to.
Comment by JR on 2010-01-19
Shale gas is an absolute game changer not just in North America, but globally. In Canada - the Horn River basin is on its way to being proved as the largest shale gas play in North America. Yes, Canadian exports to the US are in decline, and that is why Canadian producers and others are building an LNG plant to open markets in Asia. I would not be surprised to see China announce a major supply LNG supply deal soon. Apache Corp. recently took a majority stake in Kitimat LNG (the planned Canadian west coast LNG facility) in order to secure distribution for their Horn River natural gas other then the US market.
However, the game changing effect of natural gas provides an excellent opportunity to use a cleaner domestic alternative to oil and coal. Both Canada and the US can work together to build a continental transportation network powered by natural gas in an effort to reduce CO2 emissions. To export natural gas is to export this cleaner fuel to the competitive advantage of others.
my 2 cents
Comment by Corry B. Peacock on 2010-01-19
The new onshore (and potential offshore) shale formations have pushed "peak oil" back about eighty years, and we can make real use of this energy by adding water to produce methanol as motor fuel (as has always been used in American racing--no gasoline is ever to be found at Indianapolis raceway.)
Comment by john maloney on 2010-01-19
There is another Shalegas play in Western Kentucky. My well That I have a personal Stake in is a verticle well 2,200 ft deep with 130 ft of shale play. with drilling and nitrogen fracking cost included ita about 200k per well with roughly 550million cbft per well. severl companies are in the area im connected to a new company kyus, that my partner and operator is drilling 40 well not including this one with 16 completed. check it out9
Comment by agentm on 2010-01-20
conoco has many wells in the eagleford and their play is a dual play, both chalks and eagleford, called the sugarkane

3 listed companies in Australia hold a piece of it also, they work with hilcorp and texas crude energy inc, (asx listings ADI AUT EKA )

petrohawk are leaders in the shale, but in karnes county and live oak the shale is primarily condensate, 80% really, so per 1mmcfpd flow they are getting 350 bopd in some wells

great future there
Comment by Lee Salisbury on 2010-01-20
Aside from Natural Gas....we can't make steel without manganese; to date 98% comes from China, that will soon end.