Crude Awakening

Peak Oil: We've Been Lying to You

By
Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

Peak oil isn't real. Anyone with half a brain knows that...

But it was the only way to sell our publications — and lots of 'em.

Truth is, peak oil is fake. There is so much oil in the world, there's no way we could ever run out.

In fact Saudi Arabia has enough oil to provide us for decades to come.

So on behalf of peak oil theorists, we apologize.

You were right. We were wrong. And it's simply become too exhausting to carry on the lie. 

I just can't believe how long we've gotten away with it, and at your expense.

And if you really just believed all that... I've got some swampland and a couple of bridges to sell you on the cheap.

Folks, peak oil isn't a theory. And it isn't about running out of oil; it's about passing the peak flows in global oil production.

It's not only real — it's already happening...

Even though there's plenty of investment, the huge and cheap reserves we need to find aren't there anymore. It's why we're looking at deep water, oil sands, and oil shale in the United States, for example, going after the “harder to reach” supply.

It's why we're investing so heavily in companies that can get to the hard-to-reach sources — if they can get to it, they'll be worth more to everyone.

The wolf eventually showed up

Critics have called peak oil alarmists “the boy who cried wolf” for years.

Let me be the first to tell you the wolf has arrived.

And it's not just individual analysis pointing to peak oil dangers anymore. Countries and major corporations are as well. Heck, even the International Energy Agency is warning of it.

Saudi Arabia knows there's a problem. They've tried to hide it for years...

Every 15 years, according to Robert Hirsch, the Saudis have said they hold 258, 262 billion barrels of oil.

“That's not plausible,” he says. “Because they’re producing something like 3.5 billion barrels per year. That would mean that they’ve been finding roughly 3.5 billion barrels each year for 15 years. It’s statistically impossible.”

“You’re talking about finding something that is very elusive, and also the way discoveries take place is that you find the big fields first and then you find smaller ones. So to say that you find exactly as much as you’re producing, is… the probability of that for two years may be 50, 60%. The probability of that over 15 years is zero. It just cannot work that way.”

So, don't listen to the Saudis — or the notion that they want to double oil production over the next 10 years.

There might even be tons of oil in the Arctic or in deep waters; in tar sands in Canada, or heavy oils in Venezuela...

But projects like these take years to develop; oil doesn't just come out of the ground magically.

Meet Peak Oil

We've been reporting on peak oil realities for years. We even wrote a best-selling book on the issue.

Peak oil is very real.

The only thing worth arguing about is the definition of it...

You want us to believe peak oil is real… that we’re really running out of oil left on the planet. That’s alarmist conspiracy garbage you’re using to sell newsletters. It’s not real. Move on.” — John L.

“Peak oil doesn’t exist. We have more oil supply now than at any time in the last 27 years… World oil reserves have increased. Spare capacity has increased. We’re not running out of oil. Stop the BS. Do you even look at the data or do you just ‘know’ oil is running out? This article you wrote is complete garbage. At one point in your peak oil article, you say it’s real. At another point of the article you talk about the largest oil deposits on the planet. Sounds like a contradiction. Which is it, genius?” — Mark S.

“Peak oil was created by the Bush Administration, to put more fear into society, and create some reasoning for going into the Middle East.”  Richard B.

As I said earlier, peak oil is not about oil supply; it's about oil production.

It refers to the peak in flow rates of oil, and the peak oil crisis concerns our inability to find oil on the cheap.

The United States has already reached its peak oil date. In fact most oil producing countries have reached their production peaks — and the days of discovering easily accessible, conventional crude are behind us.

The era of cheap oil is gone

According to the IEA’s latest oil report (published in August 2010), global demand will reach 86.6 million barrels per day this year, and is expected to hit 87.9 million barrels per day in 2011. That means demand could pass an all-time high of 86.9 million barrels per day (as seen in 2008).

Every barrel that will come to market will be much more difficult to produce, and therefore much more expensive.

Just ask Germany and England — nations well aware and fearful of this fact.

Or ask respected analyst Charles Maxwell.

Peak oil isn't real?

Please. As if we'd be dumb enough to make this stuff up... or create a story wild enough to get sued by the SEC for oil price manipulation.

It's alright if you still don't believe us...

Sit out. Miss the profits. Cry about it later. 

We're trying to help you earn profits — period. I don't have time to make up mythical stories of peak oil, rare earth, or unicorns and rainbows.

What I do have time for — and limited time, at that — is to give you the information you need to get in on the companies right here, in North America, looking to set up shop in what could be the only safe, stable place left to drill for oil.

That's right. Under-the-radar companies are developing drilling techniques behind closed doors so that they can successfully extract what the World Energy Council has recently been referring to as the largest oil deposits on the planet.

I've got all the details on these oil gems in my latest report.

The real question is, do you have the time to read it?

Stay Ahead of the Curve,

Ian L. Cooper
Energy and Capital

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Comments:

Comment by ddugger on 2010-09-22
Only the uninformed question the conceptional reality of peak oil. However, the problem with peak oil is and has been the ability of anyone to predict either the peak or the slope of increased value as oils finite existence is determined in the market place - absent of the current market manipulation by producer cartels such as OPEC. This failure of predictability is primarily because: 1. The lack of transparency in the real production cost of oil at any one place and time, much less an accurate industry average and what fields will be discovered tomorrow.

So, what isn't "real" is any investment strategy under several decades in scope that tries to use the concept of peak oil prediction as one of its components. Therein lies your credibility problem.
Comment by Ben Tanler on 2010-09-22
I emailed you a couple weeks ago and got no response. This webpage has the information I mentioned:
http://www.rense.com/general75/zoil.htm
THIS IS OLD NEWS!!!
WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN???
PEAK OIL REALLY IS A LIE, EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF SCIENCE STILL DOESN'T EVEN HAVE THE TRUTH.
If it's possible, maybe you'll find it in yourselves to get the word out about this, providing, of course, you confirm the information for yourselves.
THANK YOU!
Comment by Don Grey on 2010-09-22
I've been following crude & fuel prices and their derect effects of the economies for the last ten years. Crude was the bullet that brought the world economy to it's knees on October of 2008.The repeated ranting of $300 a barrel crude brought "Peck Oil" to the center stage of stupidity

I continue to be amazed by the amount of bull I read relating to next years economy. I surely hope your being paid by the word.

The wishful thinkers, the market manipulators are running out of steam, but have a list of rumors that they routinely rotate over & over again, while the facts show the demand for crude will continue to drop in the coming years. It reminds me of the "Peck Oil" myth that continues it's fading echoes on the trading floor.

Crude most likely will drop far below the 70 range in the short term, and even lower in the long term. Crude demand is down by over 20% in the last three years and continues to drop as new and developing energy technologies come on line, and confidence in the economy founders because of the unpredictable crude prices. The new oil coming on line, as a result of the IMF loans to developing counties will also continue to pressure OPEC to back off price controls. If OPEC were not supporting the speculation markets today crude prices today would be in the 35 to 40 range.

As long as the crude prices continue it's swings back and forth the economy will not have any meaningful rebound, but will move horizontally at best. Confidence in the markets will continue to stagnate as a result of the endless false rumors relating to the "GROWING" demand for crude. There is nearly one billion barrels of crude being stored on land and sea today, not including the strategic reserves. So the question is, just how much more of an oil glut can the market handle? Many of European hedge funds have pulled their $ out of the market because of the never ending false rumors protections a higher demands for crude, and its going to take more than wishful thinking to bring them back to the market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-07/oil-contango-doubles-in-2011-recovery-betting-with-frontline-ship-demand.html
Comment by jaggedben on 2010-09-22
@Don Grey

"There is nearly one billion barrels of crude being stored on land and sea today, not including the strategic reserves."

Wow, 12.5 days of crude being stored. That must be way more than logistical concerns justify. I mean, if I were an oil refiner I sure wouldn't need to know where my oil inputs are going to come from two weeks from today. What a glut of oil that must be.
Comment by Joseph T. Nied on 2010-09-23
my wife and myself have been involved
dilomatically and personally with
energy regions for over 22 years.
We knew in detail about Mongolia,
Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan what you and
the rest of the world is just now
realizing.

We have considerable holdings in the
Marcellus in Penna. and realize that
the Oriskany sandstone under the
Marcellus contains 6 to 8 times
the nat. gas as the Marcellus.

There is and never will be a
shortage of oil or gas, there is
only the jockeying for positions by the nations and giant corporate interests that have them, control
them. Price control is the mantra
within all of the energy industries
there should be not problem in $40.
ppb of oil or 4.50 mcf nat. gas.
Comment by Henry on 2010-09-24
The article seems perfectly clear to me. Reservers is not the issue, extraction and cost are.

Aside from the intuitive increase in cost for extraction and refining, there is the effect of compounding inflation. The 1910 dollar is now worth $0.02 and that was before the Federal Reserve cranked up the printing press.

Let's accept the fact that we can not penitrate all neanderthal brains.
Comment by Joe Carducci on 2010-09-30
I just read your report today touting decades worth of oil just placed within our grasp by "horizontal drilling" so which is it? Dear God, I hope peak oil is coming soon. Necessity is the only argument against entrenched, gluttonous hyperconsumerism.
Comment by Chris a 'keyholder' on 2010-10-07
Though this user group may be united by interest in oil, the subject begs the biggest questions. Economics exists within a social-environmental context not often contemplated. With headlong, headless rush to find and consume as much fossil fool as possible, regardless of swirling specter of decomposing climate systems, global pollution weakening ecosystems and health, water resources stretched beyond restraint, and many countries in nagging economic hurt, we cast about for nifty investments as if on a Narcissistic desert island where ice cream investments are our daily fare, albeit beyond dessert. HOW about investing in the future of our children? How about the survival of animals from whom we came? Our brain's marvelous capacity for creation, ideas, communication, and connecting wonders is only matched by a banal lust and persistent teenage emotional travels in adult life. Excess stimulation rots the flesh at a brisk pace. We all need to take a few hundred thousand, global deep breathes and sigh as we feel this hurt and awe...........and relax, since this unrelenting, unpaired acquisitiveness is dizzying and truly a dehumanizing experience, akin to solitary confinement, only with better digs and ostensible control. Slow down people, if you don't make another 100,000 this season or your lusty millions, you can still help your brother and sister. We are called most to build that most important treasure within a red inner courage and gold of expanding soul. Hearty hands need adequate wages. What is going on now is a test of character to see who will realize the insanity of acquiring wealth by long-distance plane rides and in-group manias. I bow my head now as I have been drifting myself toward this growing financial loss of consciousness and need some poor feckless soul to wake me up so I can sleep again in peace. Too many EMF's and IMF insanity. Go talk to grandma--have a home cooked meal and then drop in on a homeless shelter because your are lost and less grounded than they--proud of yourself, yes? How can we help those most in need? God laughs only so often, and gathers his hurt until it bursts profusely downward in bolts--you can't see, therefore you're blind. don't wait for fate!!! Even more than they are! Hungry and full yet neglecting our greater duty? What did MOM say? Thank God for The Universe! hyperventilation of the rich is polluting the atmosphere of our souls!!!
Comment by JSommers on 2011-01-07
He & his wife have also been personally involved in SEVERAL lawsuits, in which they were the defendants and they LOST! Joe & Michaela Mattox are liars & thieves.
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