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Crude Awakening

Peak Oil: We've Been Lying to You

Written by Ian Cooper
Posted September 22, 2010

Peak oil isn't real. Anyone with half a brain knows that...

But it was the only way to sell our publications — and lots of 'em.

Truth is, peak oil is fake. There is so much oil in the world, there's no way we could ever run out.

In fact Saudi Arabia has enough oil to provide us for decades to come.

So on behalf of peak oil theorists, we apologize.

You were right. We were wrong. And it's simply become too exhausting to carry on the lie. 

I just can't believe how long we've gotten away with it, and at your expense.

And if you really just believed all that... I've got some swampland and a couple of bridges to sell you on the cheap.

Folks, peak oil isn't a theory. And it isn't about running out of oil; it's about passing the peak flows in global oil production.

It's not only real — it's already happening...

Even though there's plenty of investment, the huge and cheap reserves we need to find aren't there anymore. It's why we're looking at deep water, oil sands, and oil shale in the United States, for example, going after the “harder to reach” supply.

It's why we're investing so heavily in companies that can get to the hard-to-reach sources — if they can get to it, they'll be worth more to everyone.

The wolf eventually showed up

Critics have called peak oil alarmists “the boy who cried wolf” for years.

Let me be the first to tell you the wolf has arrived.

And it's not just individual analysis pointing to peak oil dangers anymore. Countries and major corporations are as well. Heck, even the International Energy Agency is warning of it.

Saudi Arabia knows there's a problem. They've tried to hide it for years...

Every 15 years, according to Robert Hirsch, the Saudis have said they hold 258, 262 billion barrels of oil.

“That's not plausible,” he says. “Because they’re producing something like 3.5 billion barrels per year. That would mean that they’ve been finding roughly 3.5 billion barrels each year for 15 years. It’s statistically impossible.”

“You’re talking about finding something that is very elusive, and also the way discoveries take place is that you find the big fields first and then you find smaller ones. So to say that you find exactly as much as you’re producing, is… the probability of that for two years may be 50, 60%. The probability of that over 15 years is zero. It just cannot work that way.”

So, don't listen to the Saudis — or the notion that they want to double oil production over the next 10 years.

There might even be tons of oil in the Arctic or in deep waters; in tar sands in Canada, or heavy oils in Venezuela...

But projects like these take years to develop; oil doesn't just come out of the ground magically.

Meet Peak Oil

We've been reporting on peak oil realities for years. We even wrote a best-selling book on the issue.

Peak oil is very real.

The only thing worth arguing about is the definition of it...

You want us to believe peak oil is real… that we’re really running out of oil left on the planet. That’s alarmist conspiracy garbage you’re using to sell newsletters. It’s not real. Move on.” — John L.

“Peak oil doesn’t exist. We have more oil supply now than at any time in the last 27 years… World oil reserves have increased. Spare capacity has increased. We’re not running out of oil. Stop the BS. Do you even look at the data or do you just ‘know’ oil is running out? This article you wrote is complete garbage. At one point in your peak oil article, you say it’s real. At another point of the article you talk about the largest oil deposits on the planet. Sounds like a contradiction. Which is it, genius?” — Mark S.

“Peak oil was created by the Bush Administration, to put more fear into society, and create some reasoning for going into the Middle East.”  Richard B.

As I said earlier, peak oil is not about oil supply; it's about oil production.

It refers to the peak in flow rates of oil, and the peak oil crisis concerns our inability to find oil on the cheap.

The United States has already reached its peak oil date. In fact most oil producing countries have reached their production peaks — and the days of discovering easily accessible, conventional crude are behind us.

The era of cheap oil is gone

According to the IEA’s latest oil report (published in August 2010), global demand will reach 86.6 million barrels per day this year, and is expected to hit 87.9 million barrels per day in 2011. That means demand could pass an all-time high of 86.9 million barrels per day (as seen in 2008).

Every barrel that will come to market will be much more difficult to produce, and therefore much more expensive.

Just ask Germany and England — nations well aware and fearful of this fact.

Or ask respected analyst Charles Maxwell.

Peak oil isn't real?

Please. As if we'd be dumb enough to make this stuff up... or create a story wild enough to get sued by the SEC for oil price manipulation.

It's alright if you still don't believe us...

Sit out. Miss the profits. Cry about it later. 

We're trying to help you earn profits — period. I don't have time to make up mythical stories of peak oil, rare earth, or unicorns and rainbows.

What I do have time for — and limited time, at that — is to give you the information you need to get in on the companies right here, in North America, looking to set up shop in what could be the only safe, stable place left to drill for oil.

That's right. Under-the-radar companies are developing drilling techniques behind closed doors so that they can successfully extract what the World Energy Council has recently been referring to as the largest oil deposits on the planet.

I've got all the details on these oil gems in my latest report.

The real question is, do you have the time to read it?

Stay Ahead of the Curve,

Ian L. Cooper
Energy and Capital


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