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Cap and Trade Legislation

It's Not Just a Climate Change Bill

By Nick Hodge
Wednesday, July 1st, 2009

In the ensuing media onslaught since the House passed the "Climate Change Bill," one thing has been lost.

It's not just a climate change bill. It's also an energy bill. Initially, at least, this was supposed to be advantageous to the bill's passage. It has proven anything but.

Lost somewhere among the dubious estimates of how much this bill would cost citizens and the clever, punnish names being used to decry cap and trade is the more important part of this bill. . . for energy investors and for the country.

It's the energy part of the bill. And it's been all but ignored. The bill, after all, is called the American Clean Energy and Security Act. No cap or trade in the title.

Let's not forget that carbon (and other greenhouse gases) will eventually be capped or taxed. The Supreme Court has already granted the EPA authority to do this via its ruling on a multistate lawsuit. That gives the EPA power to regulate CO2 — with or without Congress.

Perhaps you missed this gem of policy detail that broke earlier this year.

While it won't be necessary to regulate emissions, Congress's help would be nice for changing our energy future by leveling the playing field for renewables.

That's where energy security will come from. That's where the money can be found. And that's what we should be focusing on.

The Energy Bill of 2009

The forgotten energy portion of this bill requires us to get 12% of our power from renewable sources such as wind and solar by 2020. It also mandates as much as 8% in energy efficiency savings.

But it won't just guarantee our use of renewables will more than quadruple, from about 2% of the mix today. This bill, when it emerges from the Senate, could be an energy piñata with something for everyone. And everyone seems to be forgetting that.

If it passes that chamber, it's likely to emerge more closely resembling an energy bill that quietly passed a Senate Committee earlier this month. That version includes opening up large areas of offshore drilling, funds for cleaner coal, and a new gas pipeline in Alaska.

A separate Senate bill considers capping emissions.

If the Senate tacks on their provisions to the House version — and strips the cap and trade title — we could actually see passage of a meaningful energy bill this year. One that placates both sides of the aisle. One that significantly boosts renewables while still making significant contributions to the oil, gas, coal, and nuclear industries. One that would leave the door cracked for the EPA to regulate emissions sans Congress.

And one that would make energy investors nice profits as it was enacted.

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The Non-Energy Bill of 2009

Of course, that's the optimistic scenario. The energy bill could always fall victim to the pedestrian partisan process we're all accustomed to by now.

I'll admit I'd like to see the House version signed into law. It would be a certain boon to green investing. But that's a political unreality and — dare I say it — probably bad policy.

So, we're either going to get a non-partisan energy bill that actually makes progress on all energy fronts, or we're going to get nothing.

But, I'll let you in on a little secret: renewables win either way. Other sectors only win if national legislation is passed.

It's a bold claim, I know. But here's the reasoning. . .

A national renewable energy policy passed by Congress would cover all 50 states, which sounds impressive and certainly generates headlines. What goes unmentioned, however, is that 32 states already have some form of renewable electricity mandates — some more strict than the national policy could dream of being.

Maine's 40% renewables requirement by 2014, for example, makes Congress's 12% by 2020 look paltry by comparison.  And it will happen whether Congress acts or not.

By the way, 32 out of 50 is 64%, or about the percentage of Senate votes needed to pass legislation. Doing it at the state level could allow states whose senators would support the bill to proceed, leaving the remaining states to craft their own energy policies.

And that might not be a bad thing. States with good solar resources, like Arizona, could pursue a solar-intensive renewable energy standard. North Dakota could use more wind. And so on.

Energy policy could be tailored to individual states and could have better results than a blanket energy policy.

And renewables would still win.

Plus, you wait and see how many of those abstaining 18 states adopt progressive energy policies when 1) they see how well it works in other states, 2) they realize long-term energy prices would be lower with renewables, 3) fossil fuel prices once again reflect their looming scarcity, and 4) the executive branch sidesteps the legislative process to limit emissions.

We may not need a massive energy bill when 50 smaller ones can accomplish the same thing.

The bottom line here is that we should be focusing on the energy part of this bill. Doing a good job of that, even if it means nixing cap and trade at the moment, would do much to help secure our energy future, increase efficiency, and help stabilize long-term energy prices.

Those are all good things. And they can be even better for investors. The Alternative Energy Speculator is proving it day in and day out. That growing group of thousands of investors averaged more than one cleantech win per week for the entire first half of the year.

And that is just the beginning of a decades-long trend. Hundreds of opportunities will arise, but here's a peek at the next three.

Call it like you see it,

Nick Hodge

Nick






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Comments:

Comment by rob sperring on 2009-07-01
Let's start with what we already have...natural gas for eternity. Renewables won't make a dent. Obama and friends are negative on any kind of drilling. Get ready.
Comment by Tom Beach on 2009-07-01
It is not really about an energy tax either. It is about how this country is going to reduce CO2 emmisions.
Yes, energy will be more expensive.
That is a given no matter what.
But what is not generally realized is the actual cost of NOT curbing CO2 emmisions. Global warming is the result of not curbing CO2.
Please take the time to find out exactly what the world can expect if we (and the rest of the industrial world) keep pumping CO2 into the atmosphere. The scenario we can expect is a LOT more costly and dramatic than an energy tax.
We are talking about vast weather changes and shorelines going inland and bigger badder hurricanes.
We are talking about killing agricultural production in much of the world.
The true cost of industrial production has never been included in the consumer's payment. The true cost has been in changes to the environment and in human suffering and deaths. Weather that is getting warmer worldwide is not a PR trick. It is happening. That costs big time.
Please consider this as a major issue and energy investors as a minor issue.
We must change our ways or suffer the very nasty consequences of a warming planetary climate. Food and water will be the 'tax' that is paid if we fail to change.
I would much rather pay a lot more for energy than not have food or water or cause global agricultural collapse. Or melting polar ice and rising sea levels. Or loss of hundreds of major seaports and cities. Wouldn't you?
Comment by Laurence P Gebhardt on 2009-07-01
Nick's summary and analysis is superb.
What is missing in the 2005 Energy bill and perhaps in the current version American Clean Energy and Security Act is emphasis on public education.
Americans are technically illiterate which makes teaching, 'selling' and understanding of complex legislation very difficult.
Comment by Laurence P Gebhardt on 2009-07-01
Nick's summary and analysis is superb.
What is missing in the 2005 Energy bill and perhaps in the current version American Clean Energy and Security Act is emphasis on public education.
Americans are technically illiterate which makes teaching, 'selling' and understanding of complex legislation very difficult.
Comment by Richard Loehn on 2009-07-01
If only our Senators and Reps would read this, as well as both "sides" of the energy issue.
Comment by Jim Bunger on 2009-07-01
If the IPCC projections on future emissions are to be believed, we will consume 3 to 4 times the recoverable fossil energy on earth over the next 100 years. Clearly a fundamental error in their 'science'. Additionally, they (IPCC) fail to recognize that there is 23% more biomass on earth today, making more food for all living animals, than there was 40 years ago. Limitations of fossil energy supply and the beneficial impact of natural biosequestration will limit atmospheric CO2 concentrations to levels far below the critical threshold. Once these facts are discovered the whole issue of controls and climate change will evaporate.
Comment by Jim Bunger on 2009-07-01
If the IPCC projections on future emissions are to be believed, we will consume 3 to 4 times the recoverable fossil energy on earth over the next 100 years. Clearly a fundamental error in their 'science'. Additionally, they (IPCC) fail to recognize that there is 23% more biomass on earth today, making more food for all living animals, than there was 40 years ago. Limitations of fossil energy supply and the beneficial impact of natural biosequestration will limit atmospheric CO2 concentrations to levels far below the critical threshold. Once these facts are discovered the whole issue of controls and climate change will evaporate.
Comment by Ray Hull on 2009-07-01
To date, it is an established fact that no credible evidence has been discovered that human’s release of co2 causes global warming. The IPCC reports can’t point to any observations that show co2 causes significant warming at the co2’s current levels. ($30 billion spent over 20 years for climate research by the government.)
Comment by R P Hull on 2009-07-01
Anything that heats the planet will melt ice and cause droughts. None of these things tell us WHY the planet got warmer. Don’t mix up cause and effect.

It is clear from the above that an emissions trading scheme is bad solution to a problem that’s gone, trying to fight a cause that never was.

Good government policies need good science. Everything else is random government. Random policy is government by accident.

Lets do things for the right reason. Taxing the wrong thing is a lousy way to solve something else. It is not fair to punish when no fault is found.
Comment by Thomas Hillberry on 2009-07-02
I agree with comments by Ray Hull.
Also agree we need a realistic energy bill that will transition us from oil usage into some other form of energy. Supply of oil is limited but we must keep it as cheap as possible to produce the capital needed for the change over.
Was Al Gore's main reason for his global warming agenda to make his business of trading carbon credits more profitable ?
Comment by Don on 2009-07-02
4 nuclear plants have just been approved. We need 200. A coal fired plan puts out about 800 kilowats. A nuclear plant puts out 2000 megawats with no carbon output. Solar and wind generators are a joke!
Comment by John Hemmer on 2009-07-04
You say "... That gives the EPA power to regulate CO2 — with or without Congress."

Maybe if the Dept. of Energy did not hide the facts about CO2 emissions causing Global Warming this would not happen. Furthermore, just when did CO2 become a poison gas? And what to 5 out of 9 people trained in law know about Climatology. It is a Mad Mad World.

You also say: "I'll admit I'd like to see the House version signed into law. It would be a certain boon to green investing. But that's a political unreality and — dare I say it — probably bad policy."

I it is makes bad public policy then why would you like to see it passed? It makes no sense!

The best thing that could happen is to free up the licensing of Nuclear Energy Plants and get let private capital fund energy production.

Comment by Alternative Energy Profits on 2009-07-06
Great article, Nick

I think it is as clear as daylight - renewable energy is gonna be becoming bigger and bigger and the opportunities thereof will be consequently becoming bigger by the day too.

The states and countries that still think like oil companies will soon start changing when they see their neighbouring states becoming less worried about what OPEC would do next week. There is no motivation like your neighbour becoming more happy than you are!

NS @ Alternative Energy Profits
Comment by Jason on 2009-07-08
Are you stupid if this energy bill passes. It is the first step to a comunis county. If you dont like or want your freedom then support the bill. If you do like your freedom then dont support the bill.
Comment by jr on 2009-07-08
Jason - What on earth is a comunis county? do you mean a communist country?

Better learn how to spell it before you spout that this bill is a part of it.
Comment by Joel D on 2009-08-11
One question that no one has been able to adequately explain. CO2 is only 3% of the greenhouse gasses in our atmosphere. CO2 only has a small range in the spectrum where it can change its energetic state. In other words of all the energy coming from the sun, CO2 can only capture a very small percent. All of mankind produces 3% of the CO2 (thats 3% of 3% or .09%). So explain to me how we are creating global warming. Mentioning scientific agreement is nonsense when many scientists have loudly come out against AGW. My next door neighbor and I are both scientists and both believe that AGW is nonsense, so we have scientific agreement.

The weatherman cannot predict the temperature 5 days from now within 10 degrees, yet these computer models predict the temperature within 1 degree for 50 years from now? They have run computer models that have no change or a cooling of the environment.

What computer model do you believe? There in lies the question, because now you are asking me to believe three seperate computer models. Not only do I have to believe that man is causing global warming. I have to also believe that the cap and trade will stop the global warming based off of a computer model. I also have to beleive that this measure will not entirely kill our economy, based off of another computer model. There are computer models saying the opposite for all three models.

Lets stop using computer models and start using common sense. Will more costly forms of energy cost more? YES. If we are mandated to use these more costly forms of energy, will we have to spend more on energy? YES. Can you realistically model the entire environment of the earth (4.5 billion years old) off of <100 years of less than reliable temperature data? NO. Can you conclusively state that man is causing global warming off of computer models known to be inaccurate? NO. Should we jeopardize our already suffering economy in an attempt promote measures that may or may not affect a problem that may or may not even exist. What does common sense tell you?
Comment by Joel D on 2009-08-11
If you believe AGW and I can't convince you that there is not enough evidence than at least consider the following. Nuclear power is the cleanest, most effective, and least life-threatening way of producing power. How many people in America have died because of nuclear power? 0 How many have died in the coal mines? tens of thousands. We are looking into solar and wind that have been shown to provide very little power at extraordinarily high prices, yet ignore nuclear? When did the greeners lose their mind? The amount of nuclear waste is small in comparison with the amount toxic chemicals used to make solar cells, or the amount of birds killed by wind power (not to mention the fact that the windiest places in America already have wind farms, so the return on wind power will start lessening not increasing). The cost of nuclear power is low, the amount of output is high, the effect on the environment is minimal, and the risk to the safety of people is neglible. Most people do not know, but nuclear waste from power plants actually are disks or pellets. If you were to hold them in your hand, you would not get enough radiation to harm you in the slightest. In other words, if a train carrying nuclear waste were to crash, you could have people pick up the waste without gloves or chem suits and not get as much radiation as if they were to have X-rays taken. Where is the downside? Fear of what you do not understand is not a reason to act hastily or stupidly.
Comment by Joel D on 2009-08-11
If you believe AGW and I can't convince you that there is not enough evidence than at least consider the following. Nuclear power is the cleanest, most effective, and least life-threatening way of producing power. How many people in America have died because of nuclear power? 0 How many have died in the coal mines? tens of thousands. We are looking into solar and wind that have been shown to provide very little power at extraordinarily high prices, yet ignore nuclear? When did the greeners lose their mind? The amount of nuclear waste is small in comparison with the amount toxic chemicals used to make solar cells, or the amount of birds killed by wind power (not to mention the fact that the windiest places in America already have wind farms, so the return on wind power will start lessening not increasing). The cost of nuclear power is low, the amount of output is high, the effect on the environment is minimal, and the risk to the safety of people is neglible. Most people do not know, but nuclear waste from power plants actually are disks or pellets. If you were to hold them in your hand, you would not get enough radiation to harm you in the slightest. In other words, if a train carrying nuclear waste were to crash, you could have people pick up the waste without gloves or chem suits and not get as much radiation as if they were to have X-rays taken. Where is the downside? Fear of what you do not understand is not a reason to act hastily or stupidly.