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The Oil Sands of Alberta Canada

The Secret Behind Section 526 and the Alberta Oil Sands

By Keith Kohl
Tuesday, June 30th, 2009

Things were much different when I made my 40-hour trek to Alberta's oil sands.

At the time, oil prices were passing $70/bbl and on their way to $100 a barrel. I absolutely had to see the massive oil sands operations in Fort McMurray.

Can you blame me?

Production from the oil sands is one of the reasons why Canada remains the largest source of oil for the U.S. The sky was the limit for Alberta as oil made its run to $147 per barrel. And it wasn't just the U.S. that had its sights set on oil sands production. I distinctly remember how all the signs in our hotel were written in both English and Chinese.

What a difference a year can make. As I'm sure you know, Alberta was hit extremely hard when oil prices collapsed to $30 per barrel in late 2008. Once oil prices fell below $40 per barrel, I was told time and again it was the end for Canada's oil sands.

I didn't buy it.

The fact is they've been producing oil there for decades. I knew if these companies were able to keep running when oil was much cheaper during the early 1980s, they would survive 2008's price shock.

Sure enough, oil prices managed to rebound in 2009. Now we're back at $70/bbl oil, and I think we're about to see another revival in oil sands production. However, this revival won't be focused on the massive mining operations that give the oil sands their dirty reputation. Furthermore, the next generation of the oil sands could make investors a small fortune.

I'll get to that in just a moment.

Canada's Alberta Oil Sands

It's no secret Alberta has had its fair share of trouble. When Alberta announced its 20% royalty hike a few years ago, companies started to look for better opportunities elsewhere. With the huge potential of the Bakken play in southeastern Saskatchewan, companies soon flocked to Alberta's neighboring province.

Recently, Alberta fought back, revising its royalty program (for the fifth time since 2007) in order to boost drilling activity. The Alberta government recently extended two drilling incentive programs to March 2011.

That's a start. But let's get back to the oil sands. . .

A few weeks ago, I found myself in a heated debate over the future of the oil sands. And one thing soon became clear to me: this gentleman knew absolutely nothing about where oil sands production was headed. All he could focus on was how the dirty tar sands were plaguing the environment. Hence, the oil sands were an abomination that must be stopped.

To a certain extent, he was right. The massive surface mining operations involve an energy-intensive process that leaves a huge environmental footprint. Granted, he wasn't aware of the reclamation projects underway.

The problem, however, was that he knew practically nothing about oil sands extraction. If he were a little better informed, then he might have been able to see the oil sands in a different light.

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For starters, only about 20% of the entire oil sands resource is too deep to be mined. And that, dear reader, is the key to realizing its potential.

You see, the next generation in oil sands extraction is not with those surface mining pits, but rather using in-situ methods like SAGD (Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage). In SAGD, steam is injected into a deposit in order to heat up the thick bitumen. Lowering the bitumen's viscosity will allow it to flow towards producing wells.

I wouldn't be so quick to lump these in-situ methods in with those devastating surface mining operations. In fact, in-situ operations leave approximately the same environmental footprint as conventional operations (not to mention they use 20% less water than the mining projects).

Now, that's not to say there aren't still obstacles to overcome. The SAGD method, for example, emits more greenhouse gases per barrel than mining and is still an energy-intensive project.

Naturally, there are more in-situ methods being developed for commercial production. Petrobank's THAI process immediately comes to mind, which involves a fire flood underground and upgrading the bitumen underground. The THAI process is projected to recover between 70-80% of the oil-in-place, compared to the 20-50% recovery from current in-situ methods. Furthermore, the THAI process uses a negligible amount of natural gas and water.

Considering 97% of Canada's oil reserves come from the oil sands, I think it's safe to assume development will continue. Unless, of course, you'd like to see our dependence on OPEC oil rise.

Need more proof of an oil sands revival?

Look no further than Section 526. . .

Section 526

Section 526 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 had some strong implications for the Canadian oil sands. Section 526 targeted unconventional petroleum sources with greenhouse gas emissions greater than conventional sources. In other words, Section 526 prohibits the government from purchasing fuels with a higher carbon intensity than gasoline.

On June 17, the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee voted for a bill that could put the oil sands back in our good graces. One amendment passed by a voice vote stated U.S. refiners would not be in violation of Section 526 by buying crude oil produced from Canadian oil sands.

With oil prices on their way to $80 per barrel, any weakening of Section 526 will undoubtedly boost oil sands activity. And I expect those smaller companies developing new in-situ recovery methods will come out on top in the next round of oil sands' profits.

Until next time,

keith kohl

Keith Kohl

Energy and Capital

Editor's Note: I guarantee you the investors who will make a fortune in the next oil sands revival aren't sitting on their thumbs waiting for opportunities to come to them. My readers at the $20 Trillion Report just banked a solid 20% from one of those small in-situ companies. And truth be told, they're just getting started. Perhaps it's time you joined them. Simply click here to learn more.






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Comments:

Comment by Allan Rowden on 2009-06-30
Good day, I have worked in Alberta for over 25 years, the bulk of it in and around oilsands, SAGD and mining. In my opinion if there was a politician worth his salt, definitely not, especially if they are liberals, SAGD higrades a deposit and makes what is left too expensive for subsequent generations, mining gives the best recovery and highest return. If the media and the greenies can see there is more polution and visual polution from NEW York city than there is from all of the oilsands mining and the oilsands land can be reclaimed. What is happening to the garbage from NY city. There needs to be some honesty and you will not see that from the media or the greenies.
Thank you and best regards

Allan Rowden,BSc.Eng (Mine)
Comment by Joe Grace on 2009-06-30
Good article. Also, I'm wondering about the potential of the Bakken formation in Montana, North Dakota and Canada. There are reports out that indicate there is enough oil in the formation to last the US market for three or four decades. Yet, because of environmentalists, there is a lack of drilling and production. Can you please clarify the situation as I'm sure a lot of investors would be interested. Thanks.
Joe Grace, Houston, jgrace2426@aol.com
Comment by Nancy LaPlaca on 2009-06-30
Clearly you don't get it: there are no jobs and there is no economy on a destroyed planet.

Your posts epitomize the short-sighted stupidity of money: you will ruin the very foundation of "wealth" for a couple extra bucks for a few more years.

Do you have a heart or a brain, or just a calculator inside?
Comment by Alternative Profits on 2009-07-01
I think it is a good long term bet to invest on companies that build in sustainability into their operations - something I do not see in the companies that are exploiting Canada's oil tar sands.

Even if you look at purely from a profit perspective, unless you are looking for real short term profits, these stocks might not be a great medium term bet even. They are highly susceptible to government regulations, and who knows when the Canadian government will finally bow to the environmentalists pressure and try to stop the work at Alberta?

Plus anyway, I think most folks who have read about the potential devastation the oil extraction from tar sands could cause to the environment might not be really keen on buying up the stocks...

Comment by john s. gordon on 2009-07-01
allan - garbage from NYC is trucked 400 miles or more to southeastern virginia where it is landfilled. as a VA resident i am not very happy about this. also there is significant expenditure of diesel fuel to do this.
is THAI process applicable to western colorado oil shale? i would like to see somebody's opinion on this.
> jack
Comment by Wes on 2009-07-01
thx
Comment by Cls on 2010-02-02
Was gentleman you spoke to a noted Politician? This Fussy Wasy man spoke the other week about oil sands being dirty, (all oil pumped or other wise leaves a lot of mess,
but he knows nothing about oil,
even less than I do. he was tring to make hay for his next election, Alberta oil sands [pay the rest of the country gets in enxccess of 5Billion and his province gets a giant's fair share of that money like two billion, just to keep that provincefrom crying and afloat.