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Solar Stocks on Sale

Solar Stocks Poised to Double

By Nick Hodge
Friday, October 24th, 2008

I couldn't help but cringe as I looked at the markets this morning.

But it wasn't the Dow dropping 500 points in the first seven minutes that did it to me.

Nor was it the Nasdaq Composite shedding 5.5% in the first eight.

It was the blatantly obvious solar stocks on sale that were killing me.

First Solar at $100.

Suntech at $13.00.

The market has erased a year or more worth of solar stock gains in a few weeks. But surely these solar companies haven't lost half their value.

Look at this chart of five of the leading solar stocks on the market:

solar stocks on sale

Here we have a three-month chart of SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWRA), First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), Suntech Power (NYSE: STP), Q-Cells (Xetra: QCE) , and Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ).

Each have lost in the neighborhood of 50%, with Canadian Solar slouching a bit more.

Here's the thing: All these stocks, and many more that aren't pictured in the chart, are going to return to their previous trading levels.

Maybe not today. Maybe not next week. But three or four quarters down the road, when bad investments have worked their way off balance sheets and credit begins to flow more easily, these solar stocks will once again reign supreme.

Let's do some simple math to see what that means for you, using First Solar as an example.

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A Solar Stock Case Study

Once upon a time, when stalwart banks weren't partly nationalized, First Solar climbed from a measly $25.00 per share to about $311 per share in May of this year (2008).

After the housing crash, and the resultant financial fallout, First Solar now trades in the $120 range, but has fallen as low as $102.50.

This stock will certainly return to the $300 benchmark, but in effort to remain conservative, let's assume a return to $250 in the next year or so.

If First Solar stock was to climb from today's level of $120 to $250, the savvy investor that bought in today would be sitting on gains of exactly 118%. Not bad at all.

The same holds true for many other solid solar stocks on sale. Any major solar company that has taken a 50% hit and eventually returns to previous levels will guarantee at least a 100% return—as long as you have enough patience.

Solar Stocks: The Rationale

It seems that amid the economic turmoil, traders have lost site of medium- and long-term forecasts, and have completely thrown the fundamentals out the window.

Many solar stocks with bright futures have fallen victim to unwarranted selling and undervaluation as the broader solar market shook out.

But energy demand growth projections still stand. We're still going to need additional amounts of energy, and so the current solar growth projections still stand.

So it's hard to believe that, if the long-term solar forecasts are still positive, that the major stocks should be trading at such low levels.

Here's what I mean.

Under a conservative growth scenario, the solar energy industry will grow 39% by the end of 2009. By 2012, it will grow another 135% from 2007 levels.

I'm talking about the entire global solar industry, which has gone from 877 installed megawatts in 2000 to about 9,797 megawatts (or 9.8 gigawatts!) today. By 2012, over 19,600 megawatts will be installed.

While some of the bulletin board solar stocks and less-liquid solar companies could shake out, the established one are going to be providing the solar ingots, wafers, cells, and modules needed to sustain that kind of rapid solar growth.

That means increased sales, higher bottom lines, and increased valuations for the companies that succeed in the coming alternative energy economy.

Which leads me to another point: Why else would Big Oil be trying to break into the alternative energy industry if there weren't major profits to be had?

All the major oil companies have recently ramped up their alternative energy initiatives, with many of them launching PR campaigns to get their new green word out.

You can bet this isn't a sudden change of heart. It's about generating revenue. And alternative energy is generating revenue.

The industry was worth $33 billion back in 2004, but will climb to $600 billion by 2020.

Big Oil can try to get a piece those profits, but they won't succeed.

It's the established companies, like solar stocks mentioned earlier, that emerge victorious in the alternative energy sector.

You should be learning how this energy boom is going to play out, and invest accordingly.

To do that, I have a new report that details the staggering number of investment dollars about to pour into renewable energy. It also chronicles how Big Oil will be unsuccessful in trying to break into the industry in a meaningful way and outlines how you can invest in the alternative energy companies—including solar stocks—that will be delivering energy profits for decades.

You don't want to miss this one.

Call it like you see it,

nick hodge

Nick






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Comment by George Blahusiak on 2008-10-26
Nice article, but a total loss. Solar energy isn't going to do it for anyone. In fact, it will exacerbate the global warming problem. That's not my opinion, that's what the science says. Stock prices may go up, but they will crash a lot harder than the current market.