Lately, I've been curious as to where people thought energy prices were headed. Trust me, dear reader, I've seen it all in this new round of energy predictions. On one side of the spectrum, oil prices will jump hundreds of dollars per barrel. On the other hand, I've been told that we'd never see $100 per barrel ever again.
This morning, however, I couldn't help laughing. I was told oil should remain between $20 and $100 per barrel. Perhaps he just gave up on trying to narrow down a more specific price.
Rather than focusing on a set price, the question I've been asked most recently has been, "Will we see $80/bbl before $150/bbl?"
We might have an answer soon than you might expect.
Crude prices over the last week have been on the move. When oil was trading for $90 per barrel last week, the chances of falling to $80 a barrel seemed a real possibility.
Since last week, oil has rebounded, jumping as high as $130 per barrel during trading today. Suddenly $80 a barrel doesn't exactly seem likely, does it?
Shale Profits
Now that oil prices are on the move again, we can at least expect natural gas to follow. Although natural gas didn't have a record gain today like crude oil, don't forget that September is the time of year when natural gas prices are at their lowest.
More than ever, unconventional sources of natural gas are making up a greater share of production. Despite costing several million dollars per well, producers are still interested fracturing the shales to extract the natural gas.
Last week, we talked about the Haynesville shale boom. I also said that Haynesville wasn't the only shale play out there for investors.
Here's a few of my favorites...
Barnett Shale
I may have said this time and time again, but I don't feel it would be right to talk about shale plays without at least mentioning the Barnett shale.
Before breaking through the Barnett shale a few years ago, U.S. domestic natural gas production was struggling (much like our oil production has been for over three decades). Stretching across 17 Texas counties, the Barnett shale is considered one of the largest onshore natural gas fields in the U.S. In fact, the Barnett play is one of the reasons natural gas production in Texas grew by 15% between the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008.
Some of the major players in the Barnett have had tremendous success. Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN), for example, has drilled approximately 3,000 wells in the play during the last six years. Shares have grown well over 400% since.
Fayetteville Shale
The Fayetteville shale is another unconventional gas resource, located on the Arkansas portion of the Arkoma Basin. In order to get to the shale, companies need to drill roughly 1,500 to 6,500 feet deep.
Interest in this up and coming shale play was sparked by Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN). The company now has 22 drilling rigs operating in the area.
Some of the big players have taken notice, too.
BP America (NYSE: BP) recently acquired 25% of Chesapeake Energy's stake in the Fayetteville shale. The $1.9 billion deal includes approximately 540,000 net acres on which BP could drill up to 6,700 horizontal wells in the future.
Unconventional Profits
Now that energy prices are starting to rebound, investors have the perfect opportunity to pick up some quality companies at a discount. Personally, I like to focus on where that boom is coming from. During the next few years, we're going to see unconventional sources of oil and natural gas take center stage.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl
P.S. The next round of profits is right around the corner for upcoming energy plays. I know my readers are already taking advantage of the 34% jump in oil prices over the last week. If you're interested in making some of those gains, I suggest checking out the $20 Trillion Report.







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