In January of 2004, Kenneth S. Deffeyes, author of Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak and Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, predicted that world oil production would peak on Thanksgiving Day in 2005.
Now he says that this prediction was slightly off. Using updated data Deffeyes has come up with a new date. According to Deffeyes the world has already passed the peak on December 16, 2005.
The late Dr. M. King Hubbert's theory says that global oil production rate will peak when half of the world's oil has been produced.
It's estimated that there are 2.013 trillion barrels of oil left on the earth. So, the world peak would then happen when 1.0065 trillion barrels have been produced (half of 2.013)
Using end-of-year 2005 production numbers from the Oil & Gas Journal, Deffeyes came up with his new date.
According to the Oil & Gas Journal, the cumulative world production at the end of 2004 was 0.9812 trillion barrels and at the end of 2005 it was 1.00748 trillion.
So, during 2005 the world passed the halfway point. The graph below shows the date of the crossover: December 16, 2005.
According to Deffeyes, there are also some additional noteworthy morsels in the end-of-year statistics.
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We've discovered a tiny company with roof shingles that double as solar panels. And they're already rolling in the contracts from some of the nation's biggest homebuilders and roofers.
Compared to 2004, global oil production was up 0.8% in 2005. But that wasn't even nearly enough to compensate for the 3% rise in global oil demand.
Deffeyes posted on his website, "Most oil-producing countries are in decline. The rise in production was largely from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Angola."
"The Saudi production for 2005 was 9.155 million barrels per day. On March 6, 2003 Saudi Aramco and the government of Saudi Arabia announced by way of the Dow Jones newswire that they were maxed out at 9.2 barrels per day. In retrospect, that statement seems to be accurate."
From here it only gets worse. Let me quote Deffeyes again:
"There are calls for embargoing Iranian oil because of the nuclear weapons situation. Pulling four million barrels per day out from under the world energy supply might trigger a severe worldwide recession. In the post-peak era, we're playing a new ball game and we don't yet know the rules."
"Ghawar, the supergiant Saudi oilfield, is producing increasing amounts of water along with the oil. When [Matthew] Simmons sent Twilight in the Desert to the printer, the water cut at Ghawar was around 30 percent. There are later reports on the Internet (home.entouch.net/dmd/ghawar.htm) of water cuts as high as 55 percent. Ghawar has been producing 4 million barrels per day; when the Ghawar field waters out, you can kiss your lifestyle goodbye."
At the beginning of the 20th century, oil supplied only 4% of the world's energy. Today, it is the single most important energy source on the planet.
The present world energy situation is a house of cards, built on diminishing oil and natural gas supplies, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the global population explosion and the booming economies in China and India
Pulling any one card out from the bottom of the pile might collapse the whole structure.
Luke Burgess
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