Baltimore, MD--The longer we wait, the worse the consequences will be. I can't but wonder how many people will be saying over the next decade, "We should have done something about this years ago."
I'm growing more restless with each passing day. And after the conversations I've been having with readers for the past few weeks, it appears that a lot of you are too.
And it's quotes like this that fuel it . . .
"You cannot convince any (OPEC) member to add more crude to the market because we have enough crude, there's enough oil in the market, we don't know what to do with it." --OPEC Secretary General Abdulla El-Badri.
More oil than we know what to do with? I can't help but wonder if they would be comfortable with oil prices over $80 or even $90 a barrel.
It was only a few weeks ago that oil broke past $78 a barrel. Since then, prices fell briefly below $70 before rebounding again. Not surprisingly, oil prices are higher than last year, when a barrel of crude cost roughly $66.45. Around this time in 2004, a barrel of oil was only about $39.39.
The next few months are going to be critical.
In the past, oil prices typically dropped as we get closer to winter. Last January, prices tumbled into the mid-$40 range. Yet there are still some reports estimating that we'll see $95 a barrel before next year.
The truth is that 2007 and 2008 are going to put peak oil to the test. Although I've been saying this all year, it's imperative that we understand this: The world's demand for oil is going to levels that cannot be met by global production.
Production simply will not be able to keep up.
Take China, for example. Last month, the country imported 39% more oil than last year. The massive discovery at Jidong Nanpu is turning out to be smaller than first estimated. Is it still a significant find for China? Absolutely. But it won't be nearly enough to satisfy their oil thirst.
Here's what I'm waiting for . . .
When the world is consuming more than 88 million barrels every day next year and begging OPEC to increase production, will they?
We don't know whether they are even capable of doing so. With the amount of water they're pumping into Ghawar nowadays, it's probably more of an aquarium than an oil reserve.
According to the Hirsch report published a few years ago, "The peaking of world production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem." I couldn't agree more.
Furthermore, the longer we wait to do something, the worse the effects will be.
And just imagine how much energy we'll be consuming when there's over nine and a half billion people in the world in 2050! Or when it becomes apparent that countries like China aren't able to slow their momentum.
One of the worst things that could happen is for oil prices to retreat this winter. It would give us a false sense that everything is just fine and dandy.
Lower oil prices would lead to several problems:
There would be less money available to develop unconventional sources like deep water deposits, oil shales and tar sands.
Development of alternative and renewable energy projects would be delayed.
The lack of new exploration and development would be disastrous as oil production remains stagnant.
Things are going to get very interesting over the next few months, that's for sure. Personally, I'm not too concerned that oil prices will slip below $60 a barrel. We ran out of $50 oil this year.
Maybe restless was the wrong word to use. I think a better one is excitement. Oil field discoveries peaked decades ago. And the last barrels of oil are going to come from unconventional sources.
There's going to trillions of dollars invested in oil. Naturally, the question is where it'll go, which is precisely what has me buzzing around lately. Trust me, the last thing we want to do is sit on the sidelines and watch someone else's wallet grow.
I'd like to invite you to see for yourself, though. On September 13-16, 2007, you can join me at our conference 2007 Angel Research "Profit from the Peak" Summit in Philadelphia. But there are only a few days left to sign up, so if you're interested, visit here now. I look forward to hearing from you personally.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl
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there were left that time, 13 000 miljoen barrels. this is with a worlduse of approxm 85 miljon barrels a day just enough to serve yhe worlds need just a 153 days, this is less then half a year.Shell produces worldwide about3 miljon barrels/day, so this will last another 11.8 years from now, and then shell is finished.
worth nothin, because no oil, no refinery, no sales, nothing left,only equipment that have to be dismantled what costs a lot of money there is not .
2018 shell is out of order.
I think this story will fit all the others, as Aramco,exxon/mobile/texaco/the french the russians aso.
Who can confirm this item? were are the figures to calculate secure these future problems.
Who has an overall vieuw of worlds storage atthe moment ?
Sheel ceo confirmed 1 month ago ( Mr ter Veer the dutch ceo) that the world is using at this moment 85 barrels of oil each day and a total of 225 miljon barrela oil equivalent, that means nat.gaz, coal, alltogether, calculated as oil energy.
Here iam ta;lking just about oil(fluids) and not about the lpg coming with it and condensates coming with it.)
My opinion is this: Shell will exist a large time shorte then calculated, because the fields getting empty and to take out the rest will go slower and slower with rising costs, to produce.
With a field under pressure , producing is easy, but now many fields need a artificial pressure to produce enough, and this will become more sever in future, so capacity will slow down very fast.
Àlso the last drops are hardly to substract, so the end of shell will be much sooner then calculated.
I have no reasons at all to believe that this case is different for the others.
Even BP admits there are hugh problems, and 1 year ago there was in Netherlands an secret meeting with oilindustries and government to discuss, the disaster that stands for the door for about the traffic, oilsupplies and future transportproblems.
I think there is NO vision with NOBODY, what to do at this very moment. Everybody looks to their neighbours, but nobody act really, or knows exactly what is going on and nobody has a solution.
Now they are constructing in South France a tokamak nuclear fusion reaktor for i thougt 18 billion euros to be in work 2018, and consume more fuel then it gives.
IF THIS IS really working, it is not sure at all, then they build a bigger one 500 kw that will produce more then it eats.
takes another 10 years or so, and then if this is all working like they hope they can start to build economical ones of 1500 MW.
But before ( if tey are able to tackle all very difficult technican problem) this is ready, and before this will help the world energy crisis on large scale, it willtake more then 100 years to fulfill this.
I think that is too late and the risks of not working at all is bigger then 80 %.
Look to CALCAR, a breed reaktor near the border Netherland Germany build fro 8 billion German Marks that time, is never been working, is now a disney kind playground and was sold with all equipment and machiones, some 8 years ago for only 3 million german marks.
The buyer took out all copper and lead and iron and gained more of this matrerial, on sales as second hand then his costprice of the complete site.
This is wath is going to happen to the fusion reactor in France, powered by politicians, supported by the industry, ( they do not care working or not, they only see their sales and money grow), and the governments are paying with the money of the normal people.
So they live in heaven, no risks, no sorrows, every hour is getting paid, they laugh and drink wine, they dont care for the future of their own children.
This is in fact what is happening, it is criminal behaviour, but no punishment is there, because everybody play the same game.
I like to recieve comment of tthis point of vieuw , Sincerely Yours
Jan (nickname Indian)