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The Deception Behind Oil's Future

By Keith Kohl
Thursday, March 22nd, 2007

Baltimore, MD--Oil prices over the next ten years are going to alter the way our world operates. Peak oil is the reason. Oil companies may denounce peak oil as a "myth," but in a few short years they'll have nothing more to hide behind.

Lies, Profits and Deceit

You have been hoodwinked for years.

The problem is not the amount of oil left in the earth, however. Ideally, we could fuel our future demand with over four and a half trillion barrels of oil still buried beneath our feet. I'll certainly agree there's enough oil to last us well over a hundred years.

So what's the worry?

The worry is what it will cost us to get that oil.

Let's set aside the fact that oilfields around the world are depleting. According to the Energy Information Agency, the world is going to be consuming 98 million barrels of oil per day by 2015. This means that production must increase by at least 12 million barrels a day over the next few years.

Naturally, new exploration will make up the difference, right?

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So far, we've gone to the ends of the earth to find new sources of oil. Arctic and other deep-sea drilling locations require huge investments of money, which alone will drive oil past $100 per barrel. And these new areas are in extremely harsh environments. Unexpected situations are bound to arise. The North Sea is a perfect example. Operations at the North Sea Sullom Voe terminal, a major European oil and gas facility, have been disrupted by strong winds more than twenty times this year alone. That causes delays in shipments from more than twenty oil fields.

Even without depletion, oil companies will still have a difficult time increasing production enough to keep pace with global consumption.

Now add the fact that nearly all of the mammoth oilfields have already entered depletion. Despite the claim that more oilfields are being discovered every year, these new discoveries are minuscule compared to the fields now being depleted.

But how do we for sure that oil prices are going to go up instead of down?

Proof from the Past

Higher oil prices over the next few years are virtually guaranteed. Just look at the last four years.

In 2003 oil was trading at $30 per barrel. Since then it has doubled to over $60 per barrel! The peak during that period came last July, when prices reached $78 a barrel. Yet the world didn't end and people have moved on.

The truth is, we've run out of $30 oil.

This past January, oil prices dropped to $50 per barrel.

Think about the importance of that for a second.

Oil prices historically are lower during the colder months--mostly due to a considerable decrease in driving. So oil has established a new floor of $50 per barrel. Barring some unforeseen development in the oil industry, we will never see oil below $50 again.

This morning, crude oil jumped to over $61 per barrel in response to U.S. refiners increasing operating rates.

Don't expect to see oil go lower. The summer driving season will cause gasoline refinery production to surge. And increasing gas production correlates to higher crude oil consumption.

If you include the geopolitical tension raging between the U.S. and Iran, along with a possibly devastating hurricane season, oil could be headed much higher.

A Wolf in Wolf's Clothing

So who's going to be the knight in shining armor?

Don't look at OPEC. They are a one-way ticket to higher oil prices, despite being "content" with current levels.

Remember, this is the same OPEC that just cuts production whenever they feel prices have dipped too much. Don't worry, OPEC won't let get prices go too high too fast--they still need consumers feeling comfortable. But let's face it, it took them only four years to get us comfortable with $60 oil. Now imagine how soon they can make us comfortable paying $120 per barrel!

The deception of future oil security is about to come crashing down around our ears. As soon as you realize that energy prices are about to explode, you'll be in a better position to act.

Over the next few weeks, I'll show you one clear way you can exploit the energy tidal wave . . . so stay tuned.

Until next time,

Keith Kohl




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