The price of oil may be on the run but it probably won't be for long. So enjoy it while you can.

That's because while lower prices at the pump are certainly welcomed, the recent spate of good news simply isn't enough to change our energy calculus.

While discoveries of deep water oil fields in the gulf, rising crude inventories, and an easing of tensions in the Middle East may all be enough to drive the price of oil to a new five month low today, it may end up being be short-lived.

So enjoy the $66 per barrel price while it lasts, because the underlying oil story remains unmoved.

This is because the truths about oil are stark as they are simple. And the reality is that these cold truths are still largely unchanged.

And the truths are these:

• Conventional petroleum supplies are not meeting the dramatic increases in worldwide demand
• Global competition from China, India, and other nations for oil resources is rapidly increasing.
• A large portion of the supply is vulnerable to natural disasters, political instability and terrorism.
• Major oil field have begun to peak.

Hard truths to be sure, but truths nonetheless.

And it is the convergence of these truths that promises to keep oil prices at high levels now and into the future. It's just that simple.

Given these facts it's no wonder that OPEC decided today to keep its oil output near a 25 year high despite a $13 fall in crude prices since mid-July.

In fact, it was practically a forgone conclusion, since the Ministers said before the meeting that they were unlikely to tamper with the current 28 million barrels per day ceiling citing the coming of peak winter demand and continuing supply concerns.

Because, you see, for over a year now OPEC has been pumping oil at close to its fastest rate for 25 years to provide enough product to insure against price shocks and to ease the pressure that price spikes create for consumer economies.

And even at those record setting rates it was having a hard time keeping up with global demand.

Because of this cutting production simply wasn't an option for the cartel despite the worries that a slowing global economy would lead to diminishing demand.

In this regard, Saudi Oil Minister Ali-AL-Naimi, commented that, "Market fundamentals are very sound."

He also added that, "We are beginning to see a slight decrease in economic growth, very slight," but added also that, "it is nothing alarming."

So despite these worries, OPEC adjourned their meetings with status quo production levels.

Even so, the cartel did, however, leave open the possibility of an output cut later this year with a promise to monitor market conditions that have driven oil prices to five-month lows.

Some OPEC members, including Iranian Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh, even went on to suggest that prices shouldn't be allowed to fall below $60 a barrel.

And given the incredibly tight supply and demand picture that exists, there is little doubt that the cartel will continue to be able to hold sway over prices in the future, particularly to the upside.

So while the drop in prices has been surprising to many, it simply represents a return to the levels that existed before the latest Israeli conflict, not the cratering of prices that has been touted by many.

Irrational exuberance to the downside perhaps.

But nonetheless it has been good news for consumers, particularly U.S. drivers. The drop at the pump has pushed prices to about $2.62 a gallon for unleaded regular gasoline from more than $3 a month ago, according to AAA.

But even then, average U.S. pump prices are still above the $2-$2.50 levels of last winter which means, in essence, that year over year oil is still higher than it was even at these reduced levels.

So don't feel bad for the oil producers. Even at $66 dollars a barrel, oil is still higher than it was a year ago, and double where it was three years ago. And even then it is three times above the support level that OPEC established for itself only five years ago.

So while we may have gotten a respite from higher oil prices, the long term price inertia for oil still favors higher levels in the future.

It has to. The numbers in this regard tell the story and it can't be ignored.

Simply put, supply can not meet demand.

And in this regard its oil that has us on the run. It's not the other way around.

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