When the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its much awaited "World Energy Outlook" last week, the news it contained in regards to the world's oil and gas future was eye-opening. In fact, it was downright bleak.
That's because, according to the report, governments and companies worldwide will need to spend a phenomenal $20 trillion over the course of the next 25 years just to be able meet the world's ever growing appetite for energy. A mammoth sum.
Amazingly, this astounding figure represents one year's gross domestic product of the U.S., Japan, and Germany, the world's three largest economies, combined.
And even at that stunning rate it may still fall short, because the report also suggests that even with all of that spending there is "no guarantee" that it will succeed.
"Under-investment in new energy supply is a real risk," said Claude Mandil, the executive director of the agency, noting that higher industry costs have swelled that figure by $3 trillion dollars this year alone.
The report also went on to note that more than half of that total will need to be spent in emerging economies, where demand is rising rapidly.
This is nowhere more apparent than in China. It alone will need to spend an estimated $3.7 trillion on its energy needs over the next 25 years to be able to meet demand.
That's because, while worldwide energy use will likely increase by an average of 1.6 percent per year through 2030, its "center of gravity" will shift towards the energy needs of the world's developing countries. Their ballooning growth, says the report, will inevitably spur increased appetites for fossil fuels.
This, according to the report, will cause worldwide demand to rise to 116 million barrels a day, from 85 million barrels today. That represents a 27% increase in demand in 25 years, leaving a massive shortfall of 31 million barrels a day compared to today's usage.
That's the equivalent of needing to find some four times the amount of oil produced daily by Saudi Arabia alone, just to close the gap and meet future demand.
And needless to say, meeting this demand is not going to cheap. The report estimates that some 81% of the world's energy needs will continue be met by a combination of oil, gas and coal.
In fact, the report assumes $97.30-a-barrel oil to be the norm by the year 2025.
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Our analysts have traveled the world over, dedicated to finding the best and most profitable investments in the global energy markets. All you have to do to join our Energy and Capital investment community is sign up for the newsletter below. You'll also get our free report, Oil Outlook: Investing in 2011 by our resident energy expert, Keith Kohl.But as bad as this news is, it is certainly good news for the world's drillers.
The services they provide will be in high demand now and in the future, as companies and governments scour the world for the oil resources they need to meet the burgeoning demand.
After all, before any of that much needed oil can be brought to market, it first must be drilled. And that is where the drilling companies come in, because oil companies don't own rigs, they lease them, which right now is quite a profitable business.
Because these very rigs are in tight supply.
In fact, the rig supply situation has become so tight that some oil companies have actually begun to build their own rigs, at a cost of some 15 million dollars each. It is, they believe their only alternative in the face of the tight supply.
"We don't want to be at the mercy of a rig shortage," Chesapeake Energy Chairman Aubrey McClendon told analysts recently, referring to his company's decision to build rigs of its own. "We will have flexibility when others won't."
Despite this DIY trend, though, drillers remain strong. In the past three years the average day rate for rig leasing has more than tripled-to more than $20,800.
It's a trend that is likely to continue, since rigs are in such short supply and building a new one takes some nine months, not including the lead time. The total North American rig count rose only 24 this year to 2,139, which means the rig shortage will go on for some time.
In fact, Poe Fratt, a drilling-services analyst with A.G. Edwards, says, "At best, we can assume another 300 or so rigs will come into service in the next 12 to 18 months."
Given the tremendous demand for rigs, however, it simply won't be enough. In fact, it will be considerably less that than the peak reached in 1981 of 4,530 rigs.
So while the world goes on its massive energy-related spending spree to meet its demands now and in the future, remember where it all starts.
It is the drillers, and right now they are in the driver's seat.
Adding some of them your portfolio could put you behind the wheel with them.




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