Peak Oil Has Changed Everything

By Brian Hicks

If you need more proof that the Age of Oil is coming to an end, you need look no further than two sentences that were uttered last week.

One was spoken by the Pentagon. The other, about two hours later by President Bush.

Here's what the Pentagon said on Wednesday, October 11:

US will stay at full strength in Iraq until 2010, says army chief

"Military commanders at the Pentagon have revealed that they are laying plans to maintain troop numbers in Iraq at about 140,000 for at least another four years as sectarian violence continues to surge and fatalities among American soldiers have risen sharply."

Later in the day, Bush held a press conference at the West Wing driveway of the White House. Near the end of his speech, he gave an explanation of why US troops are in Iraq and will remain for another four years . . .

"The stakes are high. As a matter of fact, they couldn't be higher.

"If we were to abandon that country before the Iraqis can defend their young democracy, the terrorists would take control of Iraq and establish a new safe haven from which to launch new attacks on America.

"How do I know that would happen? Because that's what the enemy has told us would happen. That's what they have said.

"And as commander in chief of the United States military, and as a person working to secure this country, I take the words of the enemy very seriously, and so should the American people.

"We can't tolerate a new terrorist state in the heart of the Middle East with large oil reserves that could be used to fund its radical ambitions or used to inflict economic damage on the West."

-George Bush, October 11, 2006

In that one sentence, Bush admitted that oil is the central focus in the war on terror. Of course, the more cynical and politically astute among us already knew this.

But the Administration is no longer using WMDs or "spreading democracy" as the rationale for regime change.

It's now the security of precious recources.

So the war on terror is really "a race to secure massive energy reserves in geopolitically weak nations."

I mean, we're not invading the Sudan or Somalia, two nations that are terrorist hotbeds and known Al Qaeda hangouts. Why? Because in terms of energy, they're small potatoes.

And this brings me to my main thesis: Peak Oil has changed everything

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Middle Eastern 911

By Steve Christ

Baltimore, Md.-Being a police officer in the oil rich Middle East is important and dangerous work. This is especially true if your beat is patrolling the hard streets of Iraq.

Last month was no exception, as September became one of the bloodiest months ever.

Last month alone some 776 US troops were wounded in action in Iraq. It was, according to Defense Department data, the highest number of casualties since the military assault to retake the insurgent-held city of Fallujah in November 2004.

And sadly, it added to the 20,000 troops who have been wounded since 2003 and the more than 2,700 troops who have died while walking the Iraqi beat.

But as staggering as our own numbers in this bloody struggle are, we are not bleeding alone.

The Iraqi policemen have had their losses too.

In fact, recently released figures from the US commander in charge of police training in Iraq revealed a stomach-churning set of truths last Friday.

The results were not pretty, but the numerical expressions of bloody conflict never are.

In all, according to the report, some 4,000 Iraqi police officers have been killed and more than 8,000 have been wounded in the course of the last two years.

And as sad as these are numbers are, they promise to grow as the country lurches toward the civil war that so many have foreseen.

Just last week, in fact, 11 more police officers died in what has been described as a "chemical attack." It poisoned some 600-700 officers in all, causing them to bleed from their eyes, ears and noses mere minutes after eating a fast-breaking Ramadan meal.

Ramadan or not, there has been no fasting from violence. There never will be.

But as horrific as this and other unrelenting attacks have been, they merely underscore the great lengths that our foes continue to pursue in this bare-knuckle brawl.

And while we force our own troops to endure cultural sensitivity training (I kid you not) and push forward the noble goal of democracy, the motivation for our most dangerous foes is much more perilous than we are being told.

That's because for many of them it is no mere pedestrian revolt but part of a messianic struggle-which is no small affair, given the fervor and the power of their clerics.

This component of the violence was reported on just last week by The London Times.

It ran under the headline Sadr: Iraq war to prevent return of ‘messiah'-and it said the following:

THE followers of Moqtada al-Sadr believe that the US invaded Iraq to prevent the return to Earth of their sect's messiah-like figure, the Mahdi, or 12th imam.

Hojatoleslam al-Sadr claims that his militia is preparing for the day when the Mahdi, the last direct descendent of the revered Shia figure Ali, reappears. Shia believe that the Mahdi, who disappeared in 868, will bring justice to Earth.

At a prayer service in the central Iraqi city of Kufa on September 15, the cleric told a crowd of thousands that the Americans were collecting a dossier on the Mahdi to prevent his return. "Did you ever ask yourself about why all of this, the bloodshed and the prisons? Why are the brothers fighting each other for a political game planned by the Americans? This all happened because they (the Americans) are waiting for the Mahdi. This planning started ten years ago. They have a big file for Imam Mahdi and they just need his picture to complete it."

Ah . . . so that's what it has all been about. We just needed a picture to complete our file.

When I read this, of course, I had to chuckle because-well- it is kind of comical.

But the truth of the matter, of course, is not humorous at all.

That's because al-Sadr's rhetoric is completely in line with that of another Middle Eastern leader-Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Ahmadinejad, as you may know, is particularly pious in his devotion to the Hidden Imam.

In fact, in one of his first acts as president, Ahmadinejad's government donated about $10 million to the Jamkaran mosque. This is the mosque that contains the very well where the Hidden Imam is supposedly going to emerge, his believers say.

But believers also say that prior to his return there will be apocalyptic cosmic chaos, war and bloodshed, all part of an End of Days theology.

And therein lies the problem-the Hidden Imam, so sought-after by so many, can only appear in the aftermath of the apocalypse.

All of which, of course, is wildly dangerous, since there is no real separation of church and state in the Islamic world.

In fact, a common rumor-denied by the government but widely believed-has it that Mr. Ahmadinejad and his cabinet have even gone so far as to sign a "contract" pledging themselves to work for the return of the Mahdi.

Part of that work, naturally, is what we are witnessing in Iraq . . . because it falls completely in line with what Mr. Ahmadinejad believes about his struggle to hasten the return of his beloved Imam. Namely, that the infidels, particularly Israel and the US, must ultimately be confronted and defeated.

Even without calculating the misery that could be delivered by a nuclear Iran, such beliefs in this messianic struggle will continue to deliver bloodshed to Iraq and the Middle East at large for some time to come.

This is the reason that our military is now planning to stay in Iraq at current troop levels until 2010.

And it's the reason that walking the beat in Iraq's mean streets will continue to be a dangerous job-for us and for them.

So while the price of oil continues to drop, remember this: four fifths of the world's oil reserves are located in the Middle East.

It's where the Hidden Imam disappeared in 868 and where his followers hope to greet him soon.

 

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