We're pulling a reverse Marty McFly. In the classic 1985 movie Back to the Future, our young protagonist zooms off into the past while escaping from a van full of Libyan terrorists. Now, the US is zooming back in time - and straight toward the Libyans.

On Monday, Condoleezza Rice declared that the United States would restore full diplomatic relations with Libya. A US embassy will be established in Tripoli, and the country known to its people as the Jamahiriya ("State of the Masses") will be removed from the state department's list of state sponsors of terror.

That roster has put Libya in bad company, including North Korea, Sudan, Syria, Cuba, and of course Iran.

So why the change of heart? Libya was still held on this list despite disavowing terrorism and its pursuit of weapons of mass destruction in 2003.

The Bush administration touted Colonel Muammar Qaddafi's softening stance to successful political and economic pressure and the example set by military action against Iraq.

The Libyan government has also arrested and extradited its nationals involved in the 1988 Lockerbie bombing of Pan Am flight 103 and a similar attack on a French airliner in 1989, while publicly apologizing for its responsibility in the incidents and paying almost $3 billion to victims' families.

Yet the stigma maintained. For the missing piece of this puzzle, we must look from Libya across the Atlantic, to Venezuela.

Monday's international headlines included not only the restoration of US-Libya links, but also the severing of a connection between the US and Venezuela.

The US has officially instituted an arms embargo against President Hugo Chavez, and now Chavez is meeting with Qaddafi as the two sit in newly set positions on opposite sides of the Uncle Sam's see-saw.

Oil Equilibrium

Both nations are, in case you were wondering, heavy oil exporters and members of OPEC. Venezuela is the world's #5 net exporter, and Libya is #12. Both countries are in the process of reform, albeit in different directions.

Venezuela is spearheading a movement to nationalize Latin American oil supplies, while Libya is engaging in an opposite process of market reform and privatization of its petroleum industry. Libya is also diversifying its economy, focusing on tourism, fishing, and building the Great Man-made River, a network of aquifers and pipes under the Sahara that will cost $30 billion and ensure the country's water supply as it enjoys 6.7% real GDP growth.

This was not the first time Chavez has visited Libya. In fact, it is his fourth trip to the country with the solid green flag that will soon be swimming in greenbacks.

Chavez stands defiant in face of the US arms ban, calling it irrelevant. He has indicated that Venezuela will simply turn to Russia for weapons from now on, and his advisors have said that the Venezuelan air force's 21 F-16s may be sold off to Iran, pairing up two pariahs in the same pond where, despite US efforts, they are swimming ahead at a steady pace.

The Proper Path to Peace and Petroleum?

Multi-lateral travel restrictions and other well-placed sanctions seem to have worked in Libya's case, leading to this week's announcement. The juxtaposition of Chavez's case with Qaddafi's, and Iran's Ahmedinejad on the other side can yield a useful lesson to the US as Dick Cheney personally scrambles to oil-bearing parts of the world to secure supply through diplomacy.

In the end it is up to the whim of these countries' leaders to change policy. And it is only somewhat up to the people to change leaders.

Compare the political structures the US chooses to swallow with a spoonful of sugar. Iran was fine by us under the brutal and unelected Shah. Venezuela bothers us though Chavez was democratically installed by his own people (though he has asked for a referendum to allow him to be elected to a 25-year term). Qaddafi took power in a military coup in 1969 and still holds the title of Revolutionary Leader, but he and Bush will doubtlessly shake hands again sometime soon.

These countries and the resources they possess pose great opportunity and risk alike. Indeed, they go hand-in-hand.

I expect that a US-friendly Libya will be used as a bulwark against Hugo Chavez's threats to sell oil in Euros. As part of the new Arab Maghreb Union (which includes Libya, Tunisia, Mauritania and Morocco), Libya can expand the audience for US concerns, and add another point of support in the Arab world to our strong ties with the Gulf monarchies.

Libya is also turning southward to Africa, trading its long-held Pan-Arabism somewhat for a more continental view. Libya has contributed heavily to projects in Liberia, and that country's new president just reaffirmed the continuing support in a state visit.

One of the key initiatives Chavez and Qaddafi are engaged on is the provision of low-cost fuel to African countries. This will propagate Chavez's image to many of the world's impoverished states as a valid and useful alternative to US anti-poverty aid.

As the United States rallies its longstanding friends and drums up new ones (especially ones with resources we need), China is often beating us to the buddies. But importantly, Libya maintains relations with Taiwan and that precludes China from dealing with Tripoli. Vociferous calls for Libya to change its stance have been mounting, and if Libya turns, China will do just like we did and hop in the time machine, forgetting the intervening years, then zoom into the desert to start drilling.

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