Two Top LED Lighting Stocks

Our Top LED Pick, Plus a Derivative Play

By
Wednesday, April 21st, 2010

Some analysts aren't the brightest bulbs in the box...

While they were busy panning Cree and the LED boom in late 2007, we were backing up the truck — recommending Cree at $20, the cheapest the stock would ever be again.

Three years later, that same $2 billion under-the-radar stock now traded close to $80 the other day. That's a 300% gain in less than three years.

(I'm left to wonder whatever became of those over-paid, bashing analysts... )

But even at current prices, Cree is a great buy. And we still believe — as we did in 2007 — that it's going to $100.

Take a look at the growth behind these guys.

Just last night, thanks to strong demand for LED, Cree posted a ten-fold increase in Q3 profits.

Net income came in at $44.6 million (or 41 cents a share), crushing year-ago earnings of $4 million (five cents a share). Adjusted, profit per share was 47 cents.

Wall Street was only looking for 44 cents.

Revenue was up 78% to a record $234.1 million. Cree increased its Q4 EPS outlook to between 48 and 51 cents per share — again, beating expectations.

Sure, the Street was hoping for more... but when are they not? Use today's pullback to buy even more.

And while we're bullish on Cree, there is a backdoor trade on it, too... And we'll get to that shortly.

But first, here's why we still like LED growth.

Back in 2007, Wall Street fools thought the boom in LED technology was overdone.

Some simple research would've proved the boom was just getting started...

President Bush had just inked an 822-page energy measure that included a future ban on 100-watt incandescent bulbs by 2012. It would make way for bulbs that use 25% to 30% less energy; lop an estimated $18 billion off annual U.S. electric bills; and it aimed to cut consumer electricity usage by 60%.

American Technology Corporation CEO Richard Prati believed Cree's LED technology would grow "astronomically" in coming years, and that LED technology would proliferate just as Internet companies did in the 1990s.

Prati maintained that LED could save consumers up to 90% on energy bills; that its "positive environmental reputation will attract consumers."

Royal Philips Electronics bought Genlyte for $2.7 billion as part of its LED-related company buying spree. And GE would soon jump in, too.

President Obama also got behind the technology, saying one of the most important steps is to set new efficiency standards on fluorescent and incandescent lighting:

Now I know light bulbs may not seem sexy, but this simple action holds enormous promise because 7 percent of all the energy consumed in America is used to light our homes and our businesses...
Between 2012 and 2042, these new standards will save consumers up to $4 billion a year, conserve enough electricity to power every home in America for 10 months, reduce emissions equal to the amount produced by 166 million cars each year, and eliminate the need for as many as 14 coal-fired power plants...
And by the way, we're going to start here at the White House. Secretary Chu has already started to take a look at our light bulbs, and we're going to see what we need to replace them with energy-efficient light bulbs.

Why, then, was the Street trying to talk Cree and the industry down? We have no idea. Even today, Cree is being downgraded by LED critics that think it's run up too much, too fast.

What we do know is that the Street missed out on buying a growth stock at $20/share.

Would it be too much to think they're trying to talk it down to buy on the cheap?

Here's why we still like it.

If demand continues to grow beyond 2012 — as projected — how can you pan this industry's growth?

You can't. It's just getting started...

We're talking about a market with 388% growth potential. This is a market expected to far exceed $1 billion by 2011, dwarfing the 2005 market value of $205 million.

Only a fool would short LED technology here...

My backdoor pick is Aixtron (AIXG), a leading maker of manufacturing equipment used to make the light-emitting diodes (LEDs) that the likes of Cree put out.

And Aixtron — just as Cree was three years ago — is a screaming buy right now at less than $40.

And only a fool would miss out on LED's backdoor trade. (And that's coming from the Pure Asset Trader team. We're 59 for 61 picks since February 2009.)

Stay Ahead of the Curve,

Ian L. Cooper
Energy and Capital

P.S. LEDs aren't the only sector set to explode as alternative energy technologies become mainstream... Wind, solar, and smart grid investors stand to make a killing as well. Especially in Canada.

Up north, several provinces are planning to phase-out coal-fired electricity in the next few years. British Columbia and Ontario have both rolled out hundred-million-dollar plans to replace those plants with clean energy solutions.

Stay tuned later this week for our full report on how to profit from Canada's cleantech boom.

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Comments:

Comment by Robert Anderson on 2010-04-21
You may be right long term on CREE. But if one had not bought when you did (as in ME) jumping in now (the stock is at $83 right now) at a PE of 106 seems slightly insane.
Great article though.
Comment by Ivan Hills on 2010-04-22
Yes to LEDs! Especially to replace abominable small fluorescents. However, a 100 watt bulb of any sort still takes 100 watt of power. A more efficient unit could provide same light for 80 watt, say, a saving if you live mostly under air conditioning. Here in Maine few have AC. We need heat, even on summer evenings. The energy wasted in Florida by incandescent bulbs merely represses the thermostat a bit here and saves propane or oil. There should be no government banning of incandescent bulbs. Let the market decide.
Comment by gary miller on 2010-04-22
I enjoy your viewpoint, though CREE is for high-end users (commerical and rsidentaial).

You failed to mention that buying LEDS (at current USA technoogy pricing, e.g. CREE products) is really a 'poor personal and stock investment. Why would I think this?

I ordered some Chinese make 110V socket LED light blubs. They cost about #14.00 each and do the job fine. PROBLEM: 2 of the 6 I have purchased have given up the ghost far prematurely . . . they were speced for say 7500-10K hours of operatioal use. LEDS are wonderful lighting (just do not look directly at them for eye health reasons, they are close
wantabees to lasers---first stage transition to focused and directed high white beam projections). There are however round, clear glass blubs w/ LED clusters in them---these I picked up at local General Store/ACE Hardware dealer, for only about $4 on sale. This type would be good for e.g. hall lighting.

LEDS are just what the house doctor ordered for energy efficiency, particularly in older house w/ low-capacity wiring that is overloaded in modern electrical demand mileus. Passive solar hot air/hot water, double-pane window glassing, earth-tubes, reflective coasted insulation, smart meters and LEDs . . . are the quickest and most economical and national grid savings measures the USA can use.
They are also the best buy for the individual household that wants to save on their energy bill.

CREE stock is over-priced IF they think the vast general public can afford their present priceline LED lighting. Don't think for a moment the Chinsese arn't smart enough to set-up shop in USA (e.g. Texas) near a North Mexico borderline LED assembly and eat CREE's lunch, via the Free Trade Agreement. 2011+ LED pricing by CREE had better be around $2-4/ 110V lightbulb or CREE stock will be the 'perfect storm' for shorting. Go to e.g. Lowes and ask to see the CREE lighting . . .
then go on the internet and get Chinese LED blubs pricing. CREE gets the govt./commerical lighting and wealth home customers. Ask the CREE company what percent of their sales goes to customers with incomes less than $30k.
Big silence . . . ahhh . . . at this time . . . our initial marketing is projected to enhancing our national grid development by first stage upgrades to significant power users. Translation: we have no product for common users.

I can buy dual-use LED flashlites far cheaper than 110V socket lites, which can be mounted on old pole lamps. I can also buy rechargeable batteries for them and small portable solarcells. Welcome to DIY Geek living and investing. 'Lite-mares' for CREE?
Comment by Harry Mozen on 2010-04-24
I agree with Robert Anderson. The p/e on CREE is absurd. Why not tout VECO? It's booming, projected 9X earnings this year, and the p/e is far less, I believe, than CREE.
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