Like the world's anti-Jiminy Cricket, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is the little voice we can't afford not to heed. Iran's president is sick of shadowboxing the Great Satan and letting the European Union play the role of well-intentioned intermediary.
Upon his assumption of the highest elected seat in Iran, American news outlets jumped scurried to compare photos of Ahmedinejad, now in his late 40s, with pictures taken during the infamous takeover of the US embassy in Tehran in 1979.
The Imam's Disciples, as the group of who led the takeover were called, did include in their ranks a fresh-faced revolutionary with a striking resemblance to the current Iranian leader. It was never proven conclusively, but the chance that a member of that cadre now leads the Persian nation is psychologically and politically salient as he makes his mark through statecraft.
Unknown Future
The scariest thing about Iran right now is that no one knows quite what Ahmedinejad is thinking. World energy markets have been swinging wildly as the market reflects exactly what the investors know about Iran's intentions - nothing.
Combined with a worsening hostage situation in Nigeria's oil industry, leaked reports of Kuwait's overstated petroleum reserves, and a fresh and bewildering message from everyone's favorite 6-foot-5 Al Qaeda leader, the light sweet crude futures market is going bonkers.
The Energy Bull You Don't Want to Miss
Our analysts have traveled the world over, dedicated to finding the best and most profitable investments in the global energy markets. All you have to do to join our Energy and Capital investment community is sign up for the newsletter below. You'll also get our free report, Oil Outlook: Investing in 2011 by our resident energy expert, Keith Kohl.Consider that the left end of this chart marks the dog days of Hurricane Katrina, when Gulf Coast refineries were turned into little more than buoys. We are now nearing current levels, and for a parallel reason - Iran's recalcitrance and its position in the world's oil market (#4 worldwide, 2.5 billion barrels per day) put a huge question mark behind any and all worldwide supply projections.
Most unsettling, perhaps, is the lack of a clear plan as to what to do now that Iran has resumed its nuclear program. The US and EU want to use embargoes to force Tehran back to the table, and Israel will not abide a nuclear power that calls for the Jewish state to be wiped off the map while commissioning a "scientific inquiry" and conference as to whether the Holocaust is a Zionist myth.
Iran can block the Straits of Hormuz, a major chokepoint in the Persian Gulf's outflow of hydrocarbons.
Iran can also turn up the heat in Iraq, whose predominantly Shi'ite population has long been kept down by Sunni socialists (Ba'athists). Iran's interests would be greatly served by subduing Iraq and possibly forming a Shi'ite regional conglomerate in the meantime.
Mahmoud Ahmedinejad knows he has the world on its toes. Western nations are confronting Iran like we are in a schoolyard fight and Iran may or may not know karate. "Come on, I dare ya," Iran says with a smirk. Unfortunately, Iran has something we need, and prices are not likely to come down until the world knows exactly what Iran is up to.
It's time to dig in for a long wait.
- Sam Hopkins
Subscribe to