I still can't believe what I'm hearing.
Within a period of two minutes this morning, I distinctly remember hearing three different market 'experts' tell me that now is the time to sell off my positions. If I remember correctly, one even said, "Get out of energy and don't look back."
That kind of thinking is the epitome of what I've been telling you to be wary of. Personally, I'd rather take full advantage of this type of panic.
Soon after hearing that bad advice, my day turned around. I came across an email from one of my Energy and Capital readers, asking for one specific way to identify a good investment. I don't blame her for asking, especially after watching energy companies steadily declining for more than three months.
Understandably, I could have picked from multitude of reasons to buy right now. I don't think she was looking for a laundry list of things to look for, so rather than inundate her with questions, I gave her one question to answer.
First, take a deep breath.
Then ask yourself, "Would I still own this company ten years from now?"
After researching a company and before you purchase it, ask yourself whether you still see this company in your portfolio in a decade. Set aside any particular emotions that would cloud your judgment. No matter how long you plan to hold the position, if you're confident in the company's long term performance, it's a buy.
It's that simple.
The Long Term Bull
With that thinking in mind, I still cannot fathom how some investors are selling their positions right now.
This certainly is not the time to dump your portfolio, but rather to add those pricey stocks you had your eye on when oil was nudging $150 per barrel and natural gas was at $14 per Mcf.
Earlier this month, we went over ways to cut the risk when investing in oil. I still feel that producers are the way to go. Specifically, find those companies that aren't falling head over heels into debt in order to keep up their expanded drilling budgets.
In the short term, we're going to see OPEC take steps to protect oil prices from sliding any further. Looking into the long term, how can anyone not be bullish on energy prices? Like I've said before,: Oil, natural gas and coal still make up 86% of the world's energy production.
Investing in Natural Gas
In the past, oil and natural gas prices have always followed the same trend. A huge jump for oil meant you could count on natural gas to follow suit. Lately, however, the two fossil fuels have been parting ways.
Over the past three weeks, crude prices have fallen nearly 38%. On the other hand, natural gas prices during the same period only fell approximately 18%. Remember, this is the time of year when natural gas is at its lowest price.
With cold weather on the horizon, demand will be on the rise. That's what happens when 52% of U.S. households begin to turn on their heat.
Oversold Natural Gas Stocks
Even though natural gas prices has had less violent swings than oil, sadly the same can't be said for natural gas investments. There have been several occasions since July that I've had to shield my eyes as some of the strongest U.S. natural gas companies fall by double-digits.
As I watched the carnage on Wall Street during the last few weeks, one thought kept coming back to me: We're looking at one of the best buying opportunities since energy prices reached record heights in July.
The one oil and gas stock that immediately comes to mind are Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN). Not only does this company have a strong long term outlook, but both have also been severely oversold over the last few months. Approximately 60% of their total production is natural gas, and 88% of that is located in North America.Devon falls right in line with my future outlook. Last week, shares of Devon fell to a 52-week low of $54.40 after topping $105 in September. The company is looking even more attractive with production coming back online from the aftermath of recent hurricanes.
The bottom line is that when energy stocks come out of the trenches again, you don't want to be one of the investors that sat on the sidelines during this buying opportunity.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl
P.S. For those of you who do like fast-paced trading action, capable of delivering you a fortune from oversold companies, you're not alone. My colleague Ian Cooper has taken the markets by the horns, putting up double-digit gains in the blink of an eye. If you would like to see exactly what I'm talking about, I highly suggest checking out the Options Trading Pit.







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