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Historic Oil Prices

Why He's Predicting $200 Oil

By Ian Cooper
Saturday, April 26th, 2008

What happens when U.S. oil consumers are forced to pay $7 a gallon? Ask them over the next five years.

If you thought T. Boone Pickens' $125 oil prediction was a shock, CIBC World Markets' chief economist Jeff Rubin is predicting $200 oil in the next five years.

Oil production, says Rubin, will "barely grow over the next five years, edging up barely more than 1-million barrels a day over the next three years, and only half a million barrels a day between 2010 and 2012." And those increases could fall short of demand, leading to $150 barrel oil by 2010, and $200 a barrel by 2012.

Imagine what you'll be paying at the pump when that happens. I know I'll be taking a bike to work.

And it isn't so far-fetched given higher demand form developing countries like India. "However, surging prices would cause demand to ease in the United States, with gasoline prices, already averaging US$3.60 a gallon, climbing to well over US$4 a gallon this summer and as much as US$7 a gallon by 2012," he said.

Sure, the forecast goes against conventional thinking that slower global and U.S. economic growth will drag oil below $100, but anything's possible these days. Who'd have thought we would have seen $119 oil back in 2000?

And it's not as if we don't have solutions to the problem.

One of the solutions is to dig for oil here in the United States. We've told you about Bakken.

We've told you that:

  • Up to 4.3 billion barrels of oil could be recovered from the Bakken shale formation - a 25-fold increase compared to its initial assessment in 1995.
  • And that the Bakken is the largest "continuous" oil accumulation ever assessed by the USGS.

One of the "must own" stocks is Kodiak Oil (KOG:NYSE).

The other three can be found in the Bakken report issued by "The $20 Trillion Report." Those plays are reportedly up 54%, 31% and 30% as we speak with further upside potential.

But to understand the full potential of Bakken-related stocks, take a look at what happened to stock associated with the Canadian Oil Sands. The same potential is hidden in Bakken-related stocks.

  • Since late 2003, for example, Western Oil Sands (bought by Marathon Oil) ran more than 1,500%.
  • Since April 2003, Suncor Energy (SU:NYSE) ran from $15 to more than $110 - a 633% move.
  • And from its lowest point of 1998 to 2000, the Canadian Oil Sands Trust returned as much as 19,900%. These days, it trades at $45, a still impressive gain of 1,025% from its 1998 lows.

This is the type of explosiveness we're looking for with Bakken stocks.

Take care,

Ian L. Cooper
http://www.energyandcapital.com

———

In case you missed our other investment opportunity highlights, here's what we covered in Wealth Daily, Gold World, Energy and Capital, and your free blogs for the week of April 21, 2008.

U.S. Economic Collapse: How to Protect Your Assets With Troubling Times Ahead
You don't have to look very far in the news to see one shocking headline after another. The New York Sun suggests that America is on the verge of food rationing while the Washington Post reports that burglaries have surged 21% in Washington DC, the absolute heart of the United States, because of a slumping economy.

Gas Saving Tips: Easing the Pain of $4 Gas
I usually reserve my personal gas saving tips for July, when the summer driving season is in full swing. Unfortunately, we don't have that much time. In order to keep your car fuel efficient, I've scrounged up ten tips you can use to squeeze every penny you can out of each gallon of gas.

High Gasoline Prices Are Here to Stay: Debunking the Myths about High Gas Prices
Big Oil controls only about 10% (at best) of the world's remaining oil reserves, and their share of daily production is slowly eroding. They have reached the point where the oil they produce is coming out of their total reserves, because they can't replenish it with new-found oil anymore.

Retail Gasoline Hits Record High in the US: Average of $3.51 per Gallon
The average price U.S. drivers paid for gasoline soared to a new high of $3.51 a gallon, rising 11.9 cents over the last week, according to the federal Energy Information Administration.

Subprime Resets: The Reset Catastrophe of 2009
"The folks who say the housing market will stabilize anytime soon must be smoking some really strong stuff," says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.

Biotech Stocks: 276% Gain Potential and More in Biotech
We've waited long enough for the next biotech boom... and it's finally here. But be warned, when these stocks start moving, there's no stopping the run, which makes buying the undervalued, beaten down, and cheap biotech stocks crucial. "The high price [GlaxoSmithKline] it is paying for such early-stage research underlines the current hunger among large pharmaceutical companies for promising biotech assets," mentioned Reuters after GlaxoSmithKline bought Sirtris Pharmaceuticals (SIRT.O) for $720 million in cash.

Whitney vs. Merrill, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo: My Money is on Whitney's Call
Months after issuing a dire forecast for Citigroup, the stock now trades at $24, with a forecast of even more doom and gloom from Meredith Whitney. It was Halloween 2007 when she suggested that Citigroup was a growing train wreck since the ratio of tangible assets fell to 2.8%, the lowest in decades. She even said Citigroup may have to cut its dividend, raise cash, or sell assets to raise more than $30 billion to raise capital.

Shiller: 30% Drop Likely: Bottom? No Way
As my colleague Ian Cooper noted yesterday in The Trader's Pit Blog, California foreclosures have literally gone off the charts. In fact, with the current pace over 517 new filings a day, serving foreclosure notices must be the only thing California deputies are doing these days. But there was more bad housing news on the day. Existing home sales came in light again according to the National Association of Realtors.

Owning Visa at $23...
Credit delinquencies are at 16 year highs. There's no relief for consumers, especially with oil jetting to $120. And more than 2.6% of all bank loans are 30-days delinquent. Write offs are up 24%. Late payments are up 16%. Yet, COF is a buy because of a P/E ratio. Come on.

That's all for this week... Have a great weekend.

 

 

 




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Comments:

Comment by Doug Nottage on 2008-04-27
My query on Ian Cooper's article is to wonder why he can suggest that the Bakken formation is a solution to the potential problem of $200 oil.

"Up to 4.3 billion barrels" sounds great. Even if true, and let us hope that it is, it represents a mere 74 days of world requirements at current useage rate of about 85million barrels a day, let alone the usage by the time any significant extraction can be up and running. I would suspect that even maximum extraction rate will not equal world increased usage rate. And in any case why, in the current and foreseeable market, should anyone sell any oil at cheaper than $200 and more than the Saudis are no longer willing to do anything that will drop prices? Government control of prics??? Yeah, right! Furthermore, Bakken extraction is not going to be cheap.

Comment by Butchrgt on 2008-04-27
Making Millionaires, and Billionnaires from the oil predicted to get enflated to $200.00 a barrel is not an acceptable goal in today's world. We need to discover methods and ways to prevent this from being a reality. I know this is totally indifferent to directions and proposals for investors, but we are creating a climatic disaster by ignoring the fact that higher oil prices will be the main cause of a poverty stricken world with starvation existing just about in every country. We think it's bad now, hold on to your britches, its going to get a lot worst. Correcting the fuel shortage challenge is much more important than making millionares from several investors. We Americans and Free People of the world need to take a strong stand & action to reduce their demand for fossil fuel. Sticking together in strenght we can prove to oil controllers that we can make a difference and roll back the price of gas at the pumps. Many of the working class people world wide will not be able to afford prices at the gas pumps when they reach $7.00 a gallon. That is the prediction, so why don't we make a strong effort to reduce the demand now while we can afford it, then wait until we can't afford it at all? We are being forced to believe(mind set) we will have no choice because we are using oil and making demands that soon will not be able to keep up with production of oil.
The freedom we have now will change rapidly if we don't make some real changes in our lives to protect our assests rather than using them as fast as we can. Our futures are very grim looking if we don't discover new oil fields, and we continue to use up our oil resources at the rate being used today. Do something to make a difference, or face facts you will be walking more in the future then you ever had before. Rationing fuel will be the next step, and that will be strickly enforced. Do something before these drastic measures are taken. The steps we take today and tommorrow will make the differenc of where we are with our demand on fossil fuel.
Comment by Keith Renick on 2008-04-28
Hello investing friends! It's been a long time from my last posting on this good website. One of my best friends came out of retirement 3 months ago and returned to Saudi Aramco to work on Manifa Offshore Project. I was asked to come back and I said "no thanks." This project scope is $26 billion USD. Over 800 million in Aramco provided materials. (This is my speciality, Aramco Materials). There are 3 In-Kingdom Design Offices and 3 Out-of-Kingdom. 3 Work Unit Rate Contractor's and, 1 LSTK and 1 LSBP contractor. This is a huge, huge project.....probably a construction work-force of some 55,000 personnel. I am sure most will be the poorest 3rd world grunt workers who will make $200 per month! Targeted onstream date is 2012 but they are already one year behind schedule. Manifa was discovered around 1957 and never produced over 60,000 barrels per day for 10 years and I am sure Aramco mouthballed this project around 1966 or 1967 because this field is crap. It's very heavy Arabian and has contaminants such as vanadium and hydrogen sulphide. Why would Aramco be putting $26 billion in a crap field like this? It's because they have too! They are running out of options! In my opinion, they are not doing this to save the world, they are doing this to keep their overall production from falling after 2013. Once the world sees overall Saudi Production fall, it's game over and there would be panic in financial markets. Who's going to lend long in a future's market if there might not be a future? I just read Profit From the Peak. I've been reading about Peak Oil for 7 years and I have hundreds and hundreds of technical papers on this subject. Profit From the Peak is well written and is a very, very good book. I would advise anyone to buy the book and read it, then read it again. While I don't share the authors personal optimistic views, the technical and scientific data is excellent and Mr. Hick and Chris Nelder's research is impressive and spotless! I can't find any technical mistakes. The book is great. When I was born there were only 150 million Americans and 2.5 Billion people on the earth. Now there are 300 million Americans and 6.4 Billion people on the earth. And growing. And growing! Regardless what we do, I don't think it will be happy motoring for all. Thanks for Profit from the Peak. It's great. I am investing not because I am materialistic and greedy, I am investing where I can better take care of my kids and family and their future. I've been around the world 5 times over the last 28 years and have been to 23 different countries. I've leaned an important lesson. Don't be poor! I am not going for one minute to feel guilty for making honest investments to take care of my family. I hope you guys do the same. Good Luck, Keith "Aramco" Renick, Project Materials Speciality, Project Management Team, Riyadh Refinery, Saudi Aramco, Retired. P.S. Our biggest peak oil problem is labor. 78 million boomers like me are starting to retire. Who will replace them? You can't replace 78 million boomers with 46 million "gen X'ers" They already have jobs. The numbers after the X'ers are not good. Who will build our new energy infrastructure? Will they have the technical skills? What are you going to do when more than half of the current oil, natural gas, and utilities guys retire starting from 2015 to 2022? ooops!
Comment by Bill on 2008-04-29
What will Americans do when forced to pay $7 per gallon? Pay it and keep on driving, of course. In the UK gasoline is $8 per US gallon and the roads are still full of cars. (Current price about £1.10 per LITER, go figure)
Comment by kevin on 2008-05-13
this problem can be solved by reducing the tax.by drilling in to our oil reserves. making more supply. the only thing stopping that are those liberal enviromentalist.i care about the planet but there has to be some middle ground.in the US it is illegal to have bussinesses to fix a price on a product. this is what the towel head arabs are doing. their not happy with us over their. they get together and screw us over. its a on going cycle.