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China Coal Crisis

Part 2: Why You Can Still Profit from China's Coal Crisis

By Sam Hopkins
Thursday, April 24th, 2008

How much energy do you need to make it through a couple of weeks?

After you're done figuring in the work commute, taking the kids wherever they need to go, and assuming you like to see what you're doing at night, the average U.S. household goes through about 350 kilowatt-hours in 14 days.

This spring, Chinese consumers are frantically tallying their own fortnightly consumption, because the national coal stockpile has shrunk to only enough for 15 days.

And that's the best-case scenario according to some in the Middle Kingdom, where coal is the only royalty left.

Vice President of the national electricity regulator, Wang Yeping, and the head of China Power Investment Corporation, Liu Shuo, both told media that the real reserve number may be down to a mere 7 days.

One week of the primary energy source for an economy growing steadily in double-digits per year!

Now tell me we're not in an energy crisis.

China's Coal Crisis Persists

The United States Department of Energy says that worldwide coal consumption is expected to increase by 74% from 2004 to 2030, with coal trade jumping by 44% in about the same time span.

Contrary to popular belief, the world isn't trending away from coal consumption as we undergo a clean energy epiphany.

The DOE reference case has coal use increasing as a percentage of total energy consumption, up to 28% in 2030 from 26% today.

China plays a large part in that rise, it being in the process of constructing more than 500 coal-fired power plants to fuel greater demand for electricity in private and public applications.

After all, it's not just new skyscrapers and their microwave-happy denizens chugging juice—it's streetlights and Olympic sites too.

Plus, hundreds of millions of rural Chinese have yet to gain their first grid access, meaning the strain will increase.

This winter I wrote about the clogs and chaos at train stations across southern China, the result of winter snows that halted transport routes for people and materials alike, creating a coal crisis.

One local official in the province of Guangdong rejoiced at the time when he found out that coal cars were arriving in the capital of Guangzhou for the first time in weeks.

"We now have a full 10 days' supply of coal!" he beamed.

Here we are months later, with the mildest weather in the year, and China is back in the same sooty situation with no blizzard to blame.

Though China has the world's #3 coal reserves and the DOE predicted in 2007 that primary coal consumers should be able to subsist mostly on their own national mining.

China gets 78% of its power from coal, and government regulations are trying to make mines more secure and dial down the thousands of deaths a year in mom-and-pop collieries across the country.

Combine greater regulation with tightening supply, and you get price pressure that squeezes China's power margins too close for comfort.

First the Torch, Now the Streetlights?

China's dream-turned-nightmare in 2008 may have only begun when several protesters flung themselves at torch runners and managed to put it out several times.

Can you imagine what havoc rolling blackouts would wreak in any of the six cities hosting events?

The government has some $1.3 trillion in foreign currency reserves, and it launched the China Investment Corporation last year to spread some of that around to buffer against the dwindling dollar.

But CIC's $3 billion stake in private equity group Blackstone's IPO shed over $1.2 billion in value from May 2007 through February of this year.

Early February was the thick of the China winter coal crisis, too, and I said at the time that China's reserves would be better spent securing coal supply, namely from nearby Australia, rather than buying into a real estate IPO at the top of the market as CIC did with Blackstone.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets tanked in turn, leaving few sure things in China's investment purview.

Except energy, that is.

Coal Continues to Run

Bloomberg says the price of Asian benchmark coal is up nearly 50% this year alone. That and food commodity pressure is leading to price inflation across the economy that is at the highest level in more than a decade.

Coal stock prices are also escalating, delivering handsome returns to readers who bought my recommendations the last time I related China's energy woes a few months back.

Every single one of the companies I told you about on February 6 on has delivered whopping returns:

China's Yanzhou Coal Mining (NYSE:YZC) dipped with the local market but is now in the green, and Swiss-based Xstrata (LON:XTA) gained a solid 17%. Aussie coal company Coal & Allied Industries (ASX:CNA) gained nearly 40% in 3 months, and New Hope Corporation (ASX:NHC) is up 113% since late January.

This time, I want you to take a good look at the Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE:KOL).

KOL has just broken to new highs and is a good buy on dips as we've seen a 22% uptick since just one month ago.

China won't let the energy run out, and you should make sure you pack your portfolio with coal, too.

Regards,

sig

Sam Hopkins


"Energy stocks... The only way a human is going to make any money."

-- Matt Simmons, Peak Oil's first and most vocal proponent,
and founder of the country's last pure play energy investment banking firm.

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