Baltimore, MD-Perhaps the most critical aspect of curbing our appetite for oil is decreasing our dependence on the Middle East. But if we are ever going to get serious about it the question then becomes, where will we make up the shortfall? The answer may lie with our neighbor to the north.

The Difference a Year can Make

Just a little over a year ago, President Bush stood before Congress and urged the U.S. to limit its thirst for oil. More specifically, he proposed the huge goal of replacing more than 75% of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025.

Assuming the U.S. currently imports 3.4 million bbl/day, a drastic reduction like this would mean cutting more than 2.55 million bbl/day in Middle Eastern exports.

Now fast forward a year and you will hear similar energy self-sufficiency talk echoing in his latest State of the Union address.

This time, however, he proposed his "Twenty in Ten" plan, aimed at cutting gasoline consumption by 20% in ten years.

This would effectively cut 2 million bbl/day from our oil consumption.

This latter proposal is nothing more than a solution to the former. And if "Twenty in Ten" happens, it means Bush will have met his goal with eight years to spare.

So, assuming the U.S. would still like to ditch that nasty Middle Eastern oil habit, it's only natural to try and figure out where else we can meet that demand.

Bush's push for advancing renewable resources is laudable, but the truth is that none of the alternative fuels are even close to being ready to take oil's place.

Yet our government has an ace up its sleeve as it tries to meet that goal of a 75% reduction by 2025.

Oh Canada

Right around the time the U.S. called for a reduction in Middle Eastern oil use, a meeting between U.S. and Canadian officials took place. The result was the U.S calling for Canada to increase exports from Alberta's oilsands to five million bbl/day-five times its current level!

This is quite a dramatic increase considering that the U.S. wants it to occur within a short period of time.

Although Canada is the leading exporter of oil to the U.S., an increase to five million bbl/day would cover 25% of our twenty million bbl/day consumption rate.

That increase won't come easily, however.

I've mentioned in the past some of the restrictions on Canadian oilsands, including both extraction and environmental problems. Roughly two tons of oilsands are required to produce about one barrel of oil. Environmentally speaking, the production from oilsands sends millions of tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

That last factor has the most weight, considering that Canadian Prime Minister Stephan Harper has sworn to protect the Canadian environment from such degradation.

The Nuclear Knight in Shining Armor

One solution is the development of nuclear plants.

The Canadian Energy Research Institute reported in 2003 that the development of smaller scale nuclear plants could provide enough steam for oilsands extraction at an economically viable cost. In fact, nuclear energy would also be able to supply those operators with sufficient electricity and hydrogen as well.

Nuclear power is not only more efficient, but also cleaner. It has the potential to eliminate 3.3 million tons of CO₂. Furthermore, it can also reduce emissions intensity by allowing a barrel of bitumen to be produced with a near zero emissions energy source.

Unfortunately, however, there are some hindrances to nuclear power. The cost of constructing these plants is extremely costly-one plant is estimated at $8 billion and take years to construct.

Echoes from the Past

Although not as bold, Bush's energy goals appear to have some roots in a similar initiative started by Richard Nixon.

During the 1970s, Nixon came out with Project Independence, which called for the U.S. to attain "energy self sufficiency" by 1980 . . . a project later squashed by the Reagan administration.

All that Bush can hope for is that technology, either renewable resources or Canadian oil sands, reach the point of feasibility in time to meet his goals.

Only time will tell.

Until next time,